Comments on: Rahmstorf et al. 2007 IPCC Error? http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/ The Power of Numeracy Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:57:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Math101 – Filtering Theory » Blog Archive » Moore et al. 2005 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4756 Math101 – Filtering Theory » Blog Archive » Moore et al. 2005 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:45:16 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4756 [...] (Eos, Vol. 86, No. 24, 14 June 2005) got some attention in David Stockwell’s blog,  http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/ . Very interesting article, but I’m afraid there’s something wrong with statements [...] [...] (Eos, Vol. 86, No. 24, 14 June 2005) got some attention in David Stockwell’s blog,  http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/ . Very interesting article, but I’m afraid there’s something wrong with statements [...]

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]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4754 admin Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:05:43 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4754 Sorry, ssatrend.m MIA. Sorry, ssatrend.m MIA.

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-6365 admin Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:05:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-6365 Sorry, ssatrend.m MIA. Sorry, ssatrend.m MIA.

]]> By: UC http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4753 UC Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:27:22 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4753 Still looking for ssatrend.m , I guess it is not freely available in www ? Still looking for ssatrend.m , I guess it is not freely available in www ?

]]> By: UC http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-6364 UC Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:27:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-6364 Still looking for ssatrend.m , I guess it is not freely available in www ? Still looking for ssatrend.m , I guess it is not freely available in www ?

]]> By: Niche Modeling » Garnaut Report Due http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4752 Niche Modeling » Garnaut Report Due Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:28:47 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4752 [...] I made a submission, along with 4000 others, summarizing the sensitivity testing and conversations with Rahmstorf over a one page article published in science, claiming that the climate was responding at a faster rate than the climate models predict. It turned out the article was eerily prescient, marking the start of an over 12 month decline in global temperatures dubbed ‘Rahmstorf’s drop‘. I think it is supposed to be getting warmer, not colder. We looked at this article in detail here. In a series of exchanges with Rahmstorf documented here, it was apparent that the uncertainty was too large to support the claims made by Rahmstorf et al. 2007, and that he had no idea of how the dubious, ad hoc end-point smoothing procedure worked. Despite its obvious severe limitations, Ramstorf et al. 2007 was the sole basis for the previous Garnaut report’s recommendation for prompt and extreme action on carbon emissions. It will be interesting to see how he thinks climate change will affect the Australian economy, if Rahmstorf’s drop continues to bring lower global temperatures. [...] [...] I made a submission, along with 4000 others, summarizing the sensitivity testing and conversations with Rahmstorf over a one page article published in science, claiming that the climate was responding at a faster rate than the climate models predict. It turned out the article was eerily prescient, marking the start of an over 12 month decline in global temperatures dubbed ‘Rahmstorf’s drop‘. I think it is supposed to be getting warmer, not colder. We looked at this article in detail here. In a series of exchanges with Rahmstorf documented here, it was apparent that the uncertainty was too large to support the claims made by Rahmstorf et al. 2007, and that he had no idea of how the dubious, ad hoc end-point smoothing procedure worked. Despite its obvious severe limitations, Ramstorf et al. 2007 was the sole basis for the previous Garnaut report’s recommendation for prompt and extreme action on carbon emissions. It will be interesting to see how he thinks climate change will affect the Australian economy, if Rahmstorf’s drop continues to bring lower global temperatures. [...]

]]> By: Blog-Reviews « Climate Review http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4751 Blog-Reviews « Climate Review Tue, 06 May 2008 20:56:21 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4751 [...] Alle drei vorgestellten Rezensionen bezogen sich auf Paper mit Inhalten, die “Skeptikern” zu Gute kamen. Gegenteiliges - also Skeptiker, die alarmistische Studien auf inhaltlicher Ebene und anhand konkreter Eigenarbeit in Frage stellen - ist sehr selten zu finden. Kürzlich (bei den Recherchen zum Miskolczi-Paper) entdeckte ich allerdings die Seite “Niche Modeling” auf welcher sich der Statistiker Stockwell kritisch mit der Studie “Recent climate observations compared to projections” von Rahmstorf et al. auseinandersetzte. Die Arbeit von Rahmstorf et al. sagte aus, dass fast alle beobachteten Klima-Indikatoren (Meeresspiegel- und Temperaturerhöhung sowie die CO2-Zunahme) am oberen Ende der vom IPCC prognostizierten Werte liegen. In gleich vier Beiträgen (jedes Wort ein Link, Beiträge chronologisch geordnet, beginnend mit dem “ältesten” Artikel) äusserte Dr. Stockwell Kritik zu den von Rahmstorf et al. verwendeten statistischen Verfahren. Erfreulich zu sehen, dass wissenschaftliche Kritik auf Blogs auch von der “anderen” Seite stammen kann. [...] [...] Alle drei vorgestellten Rezensionen bezogen sich auf Paper mit Inhalten, die “Skeptikern” zu Gute kamen. Gegenteiliges – also Skeptiker, die alarmistische Studien auf inhaltlicher Ebene und anhand konkreter Eigenarbeit in Frage stellen – ist sehr selten zu finden. Kürzlich (bei den Recherchen zum Miskolczi-Paper) entdeckte ich allerdings die Seite “Niche Modeling” auf welcher sich der Statistiker Stockwell kritisch mit der Studie “Recent climate observations compared to projections” von Rahmstorf et al. auseinandersetzte. Die Arbeit von Rahmstorf et al. sagte aus, dass fast alle beobachteten Klima-Indikatoren (Meeresspiegel- und Temperaturerhöhung sowie die CO2-Zunahme) am oberen Ende der vom IPCC prognostizierten Werte liegen. In gleich vier Beiträgen (jedes Wort ein Link, Beiträge chronologisch geordnet, beginnend mit dem “ältesten” Artikel) äusserte Dr. Stockwell Kritik zu den von Rahmstorf et al. verwendeten statistischen Verfahren. Erfreulich zu sehen, dass wissenschaftliche Kritik auf Blogs auch von der “anderen” Seite stammen kann. [...]

]]> By: Niche Modeling » Rahmstorf 7 Finale http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4750 Niche Modeling » Rahmstorf 7 Finale Tue, 22 Apr 2008 13:42:42 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4750 [...] Ian Castles @ Rahmstorf et al. 2007 IPCC Error? [...] [...] Ian Castles @ Rahmstorf et al. 2007 IPCC Error? [...]

]]> By: Ian Castles http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4749 Ian Castles Sat, 19 Apr 2008 02:04:14 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-et-al-2007-ipcc-error/#comment-4749 I have posted the following to the 'Comment on the slide and eyeball method' thread on Lucia's blog 'The Blackboard': 'In Rahmstorf et al (2007) it is stated that 'The global mean surface temperature increase (land and ocean combined) in both the NASA GISS data set and the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit dataset is 0.33 C for the sixteen years since 1990 ...' 'In the light of (a) the above analysis, (b) previous related posts on this blog, (c) David Stockwell's posts at Niche Modeling and (d) comments by others at both blogs, including Stefan Rahmstorf's replies to David, does any reader care to defend this unqualified statement by Rahmstorf and his co-authors?' For information. I have posted the following to the ‘Comment on the slide and eyeball method’ thread on Lucia’s blog ‘The Blackboard’:

‘In Rahmstorf et al (2007) it is stated that ‘The global mean surface temperature increase (land and ocean combined) in both the NASA GISS data set and the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit dataset is 0.33 C for the sixteen years since 1990 …’

‘In the light of (a) the above analysis, (b) previous related posts on this blog, (c) David Stockwell’s posts at Niche Modeling and (d) comments by others at both blogs, including Stefan Rahmstorf’s replies to David, does any reader care to defend this unqualified statement by Rahmstorf and his co-authors?’

For information.

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