Niche Modeling

The sharp-eyed UC who keeps a good technical blog on signal theory alerted me to this intelligent reference in the Finnish media to Rahmstorf et al. 2007. This is a paper I have reviewed previously and had words with Stefan at RealClimate demonstrating they had grossly underestimated the uncertainty at the end points. This flawed paper is widely quoted to justify claims that the climate system is “responding more strongly than we thought”.

Who said statistics lie?

Translation: “VO: The updated trend is just as significant as the original one, done by Rahmstorf with other top scientists of the IPCC – it was calculated with the very same method.”

David,

Rahmstorf curve was mentioned in Finnish TV document on Monday. It’s in Finnish, and not visible outside Finland, but the manuscript is in English here, http://ohjelmat.yle.fi/mot/arkisto/29_9_2008_mot_kylmaa_vetta_kasvihuoneeseen/manuscript_english

“MOT asked a statistical expert to update the curve with real climate data up to July 2008. And here’s the result: the trend has sunk fast and now at the lower end of the range of model predictions. So, if we take the modellers’ own method, we discover that, warming has clearly more modest than predicted.”

see the updated version of the curve http://ohjelmat.yle.fi/files/ohjelmat/u3219/liite5_paivitetty_rahmstorf.jpg !
( I had nothing to do with this )