Comments on: Random numbers predict future temperatures http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/ The Power of Numeracy Wed, 16 May 2012 18:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: sappayday http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5801 sappayday Sun, 16 May 2010 02:39:16 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5801 Смотреть <a href="http://eclipsound.ru/musicvideo.php?vid=a8ece3cb8" rel="nofollow">клипы</a>, <a href="http://cliprock.ru/DEVANT" rel="nofollow">видео</a> и <a href="http://rss-channels.net" rel="nofollow">всякую всячину</a> Смотреть клипы, видео и всякую всячину

]]> By: Gnomus http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5800 Gnomus Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:08:05 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5800 Блестящая идея и своевременно Блестящая идея и своевременно

]]> By: Niche Modeling » Errors of Global Warming Effects Modeling http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5799 Niche Modeling » Errors of Global Warming Effects Modeling Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:10:03 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5799 [...] Here is one of my first php applications, a fractional differencing simulation climate. Reload to see a new simulation below, together with measures of correlation (r2 and RE) with some monthly climate figures of the time. [...] [...] Here is one of my first php applications, a fractional differencing simulation climate. Reload to see a new simulation below, together with measures of correlation (r2 and RE) with some monthly climate figures of the time. [...]

]]> By: Temperature and 2008 http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5798 Temperature and 2008 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:40:34 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5798 [...] by committee that models are promoted without validation criteria. On this basis, if I extended my long persistent (LTP) random climate model to 3D it would meet the [...] [...] by committee that models are promoted without validation criteria. On this basis, if I extended my long persistent (LTP) random climate model to 3D it would meet the [...]

]]> By: Niche Modeling » Global Temperatures 2008 http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5797 Niche Modeling » Global Temperatures 2008 Fri, 21 Mar 2008 21:03:28 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5797 [...] (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office. (2008) This (cooling) was due to a much quicker than expected decline of a moderate El Niño that warms the climate, followed by the development of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niña. lucia… the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C.… the curve shown assumes that the forcing will increase at a constant rate of 0.48 W/m2 after 2003. Niche ModelingO.2 (CRU)Future temperatures predicted using a random fractional differencing algorithm that generates realistic LTP behavior. [...] [...] (2007) is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office. (2008) This (cooling) was due to a much quicker than expected decline of a moderate El Niño that warms the climate, followed by the development of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niña. lucia… the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C.… the curve shown assumes that the forcing will increase at a constant rate of 0.48 W/m2 after 2003. Niche ModelingO.2 (CRU)Future temperatures predicted using a random fractional differencing algorithm that generates realistic LTP behavior. [...]

]]> By: Niche Modeling » fracdiff - prediction of future temperatures http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5796 Niche Modeling » fracdiff - prediction of future temperatures Thu, 20 Mar 2008 21:59:17 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5796 [...] The following is a simple php application that dynamically generates a graph of past measured and simulated random future temperatures using a fractional differencing algorithm. In addition, the R2 and RE statistics are calculated for a short calibration period and displayed on the graph. This illustrates the pitfalls of the RE statistic for validation. A post on this application can be found here. [...] [...] The following is a simple php application that dynamically generates a graph of past measured and simulated random future temperatures using a fractional differencing algorithm. In addition, the R2 and RE statistics are calculated for a short calibration period and displayed on the graph. This illustrates the pitfalls of the RE statistic for validation. A post on this application can be found here. [...]

]]> By: Lazar http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5795 Lazar Sat, 26 Jan 2008 16:39:10 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5795 Why was my previous comment deleted? "What is the RE score over the ~130 point calibration period, the period for which the mean is calculated? If the calibration period is shortened to 79 points and validation increased from 11 to 58 points, as is done in MBH98, does then the model, in this case noise, give high RE scores over both periods? Regards" Why was my previous comment deleted?

“What is the RE score over the ~130 point calibration period, the period for which the mean is calculated?
If the calibration period is shortened to 79 points and validation increased from 11 to 58 points, as is done in MBH98, does then the model, in this case noise, give high RE scores over both periods?
Regards”

]]> By: Lazar http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-6147 Lazar Sat, 26 Jan 2008 16:39:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-6147 Why was my previous comment deleted? "What is the RE score over the ~130 point calibration period, the period for which the mean is calculated? If the calibration period is shortened to 79 points and validation increased from 11 to 58 points, as is done in MBH98, does then the model, in this case noise, give high RE scores over both periods? Regards" Why was my previous comment deleted?

“What is the RE score over the ~130 point calibration period, the period for which the mean is calculated?
If the calibration period is shortened to 79 points and validation increased from 11 to 58 points, as is done in MBH98, does then the model, in this case noise, give high RE scores over both periods?
Regards”

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-5794 admin Sun, 07 May 2006 20:28:55 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-5794 Hi John, sure, it could be made to take parameters that lead to a 'random walk'. A random walk has the unusual characteristic of an infinite expected mean -- that is, it could really 'go anywhere'. When I rewrite it I will turn the various pars of the code into functions, and build in more flexibility. The main purpose of this script as some have guessed was to illustrate a case of random series with low r2's and high re's, demonstrating the flawed reasoning behind blind reliance on the re statistic. Hi John, sure, it could be made to take parameters that lead to a ‘random walk’. A random walk has the unusual characteristic of an infinite expected mean — that is, it could really ‘go anywhere’. When I rewrite it I will turn the various pars of the code into functions, and build in more flexibility.

The main purpose of this script as some have guessed was to illustrate a case of random series with low r2′s and high re’s, demonstrating the flawed reasoning behind blind reliance on the re statistic.

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/random-numbers-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-6146 admin Sun, 07 May 2006 20:28:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/?p=48#comment-6146 Hi John, sure, it could be made to take parameters that lead to a 'random walk'. A random walk has the unusual characteristic of an infinite expected mean -- that is, it could really 'go anywhere'. When I rewrite it I will turn the various pars of the code into functions, and build in more flexibility. The main purpose of this script as some have guessed was to illustrate a case of random series with low r2's and high re's, demonstrating the flawed reasoning behind blind reliance on the re statistic. Hi John, sure, it could be made to take parameters that lead to a ‘random walk’. A random walk has the unusual characteristic of an infinite expected mean — that is, it could really ‘go anywhere’. When I rewrite it I will turn the various pars of the code into functions, and build in more flexibility.

The main purpose of this script as some have guessed was to illustrate a case of random series with low r2′s and high re’s, demonstrating the flawed reasoning behind blind reliance on the re statistic.

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