Recent Climate Illogic

Environment minister Peter Garratt claimed recent figures on Australian temperature prove Opposition leader Tony Abbott was wrong to claim that the world had stopped warming.

Substitute Australia for the World, and the last 100 years for 10 years, and you might get close to the actual claim, similar to that made by respected climate physicist Roy Spencer that “there has been no net warming in the last 11 years or so”.

It’s easy — but confused — to find a limited region with a different climate, over a different time period, then use it for rebuttal.

David Jones of the BoM claims, referring to their Annual Report that the upward trend of temperature since 1920(?) should silence the critics once and for all.

If all it took were 90 years of temperature change to prove AGW, then why has so much effort been put into establishing the millennium record, which by the most recent results, indicates the world is no warmer than 1000 years ago. Why then did ‘the Team’ as featured in the Climategate scandal, bother to ‘hide the decline’?

The last 100 years of temperature rise — quite plausibly caused by natural variation — is the lifeboat supporters of the sunk Emissions Trading Scheme are clinging to.

The Department of Climate Change has published a rebuttal of Miskolczi, who proposed a new theory that the Earth’s greenhouse effect is constant and temperature variation is caused by direct solar forcing, or changes in albedo such as variation in cloud cover.

The supposed ‘facts’ disproving M are as follows:

Past changes in the Earth’s climate have been initiated by natural variation (such as changes in solar activity and the Earth’s orbit) rather than being caused by humans. These past natural warming events have triggered greenhouse gases to be released by the Earth, causing additional warming. This demonstrates that the Earth’s climate has changed with shifts in greenhouse gas concentrations (i.e the Earth’s greenhouse effect is not constant and can generate additional warming or cooling.)

The Earth has warmed by 0.76°C since 1850. Water vapour in the atmosphere has also increased. These observations are inconsistent with Miskolczi’s theory.

The first is not a fact, or even really a theory, as its not disprovable. Its more like a narrative. The second claims that increases in temperature and WV falsify M’s theory, contradicting their first paragraph that explains it is only changes in greenhouse effect that disprove Miskolczi.

And despite a few decades of trying, no conclusive evidence of a change in the strength of the greenhouse effect has been found. In fact, evidence such as the distribution of tropospheric temperature changes suggests the opposite.