Comments on: Spurious Regression Random Walk http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/ The Power of Numeracy Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:57:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tim Curtin http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4297 Tim Curtin Thu, 17 Jul 2008 04:54:49 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4297 David: the global temperature sets prescribed to Breusch and Vahid by Garnaut begin from 1850 or 1880 and deliberately did not include the satellite record which is now 30 years. The useful attribute of the 19th century years from 1850 to after 1900 is that there were no weather stations in tropical Africa or even central America and much if not most of tropical Australia. This conveniently makes those years seem globally "cool", just as losing all those Siberian stations makes the NH seems warmer than it was after 1990, as the satellite measurements also show. Using post 2002 GISS data also introduces bias from 1980 to 2008 after all Hansen's rewriting of climate history to make the 1980s look cooler and the 1990s hotter. David: the global temperature sets prescribed to Breusch and Vahid by Garnaut begin from 1850 or 1880 and deliberately did not include the satellite record which is now 30 years. The useful attribute of the 19th century years from 1850 to after 1900 is that there were no weather stations in tropical Africa or even central America and much if not most of tropical Australia. This conveniently makes those years seem globally “cool”, just as losing all those Siberian stations makes the NH seems warmer than it was after 1990, as the satellite measurements also show. Using post 2002 GISS data also introduces bias from 1980 to 2008 after all Hansen’s rewriting of climate history to make the 1980s look cooler and the 1990s hotter.

]]> By: Tim Curtin http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7306 Tim Curtin Thu, 17 Jul 2008 04:54:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7306 David: the global temperature sets prescribed to Breusch and Vahid by Garnaut begin from 1850 or 1880 and deliberately did not include the satellite record which is now 30 years. The useful attribute of the 19th century years from 1850 to after 1900 is that there were no weather stations in tropical Africa or even central America and much if not most of tropical Australia. This conveniently makes those years seem globally "cool", just as losing all those Siberian stations makes the NH seems warmer than it was after 1990, as the satellite measurements also show. Using post 2002 GISS data also introduces bias from 1980 to 2008 after all Hansen's rewriting of climate history to make the 1980s look cooler and the 1990s hotter. David: the global temperature sets prescribed to Breusch and Vahid by Garnaut begin from 1850 or 1880 and deliberately did not include the satellite record which is now 30 years. The useful attribute of the 19th century years from 1850 to after 1900 is that there were no weather stations in tropical Africa or even central America and much if not most of tropical Australia. This conveniently makes those years seem globally “cool”, just as losing all those Siberian stations makes the NH seems warmer than it was after 1990, as the satellite measurements also show. Using post 2002 GISS data also introduces bias from 1980 to 2008 after all Hansen’s rewriting of climate history to make the 1980s look cooler and the 1990s hotter.

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4296 admin Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:44:17 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4296 Bob, I have shown that 2 of the the more conventional two-sided tests would not have been significant. That is among the facts. Bob, I have shown that 2 of the the more conventional two-sided tests would not have been significant. That is among the facts.

]]> By: admin http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7305 admin Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:44:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7305 Bob, I have shown that 2 of the the more conventional two-sided tests would not have been significant. That is among the facts. Bob, I have shown that 2 of the the more conventional two-sided tests would not have been significant. That is among the facts.

]]> By: Bob http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4295 Bob Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:28:16 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4295 There are no facts, only skepticism. There are no facts, only skepticism.

]]> By: Bob http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7304 Bob Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:28:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7304 There are no facts, only skepticism. There are no facts, only skepticism.

]]> By: UC http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4294 UC Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:51:36 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4294 Breusch and Vahid does not cite Shumway and Stoffer, "Time Series Analysis and Its Applications" (2006) p. 62, "In this case it appears that the differenced process may be white noise, which implies that the global temperature series is a random walk" or Mizon, "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't", Journal of Econometrics (1995) 69 ..."'autocorrelation correction' is invalid in general, and cannot be justified on the grounds of 'robustifying' estimation against the presence of residual serial correlation" Breusch and Vahid does not cite

Shumway and Stoffer, “Time Series Analysis and Its Applications” (2006) p. 62,

“In this case it appears that the differenced process may be white noise, which implies that the global temperature series is a random walk”

or

Mizon, “A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don’t”, Journal of Econometrics (1995) 69

…”‘autocorrelation correction’ is invalid in general, and cannot be justified on the grounds of ‘robustifying’ estimation against the presence of residual serial correlation”

]]> By: UC http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7303 UC Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:51:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7303 Breusch and Vahid does not cite Shumway and Stoffer, "Time Series Analysis and Its Applications" (2006) p. 62, "In this case it appears that the differenced process may be white noise, which implies that the global temperature series is a random walk" or Mizon, "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't", Journal of Econometrics (1995) 69 ..."'autocorrelation correction' is invalid in general, and cannot be justified on the grounds of 'robustifying' estimation against the presence of residual serial correlation" Breusch and Vahid does not cite

Shumway and Stoffer, “Time Series Analysis and Its Applications” (2006) p. 62,

“In this case it appears that the differenced process may be white noise, which implies that the global temperature series is a random walk”

or

Mizon, “A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don’t”, Journal of Econometrics (1995) 69

…”‘autocorrelation correction’ is invalid in general, and cannot be justified on the grounds of ‘robustifying’ estimation against the presence of residual serial correlation”

]]> By: Truthman http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4293 Truthman Sun, 06 Jul 2008 23:25:12 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-4293 The trouble is when you have people claiming disaster in100yrs they dont deal in facts,the reality is n ne can forcast that far ahead accurately nor can they ever change nature or the weather .a very good article !you know its a scam when nothing is based on fact . The trouble is when you have people claiming disaster in100yrs they dont deal in facts,the reality is n ne can forcast that far ahead accurately nor can they ever change nature or the weather .a very good article !you know its a scam when nothing is based on fact .

]]> By: Truthman http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7302 Truthman Sun, 06 Jul 2008 23:25:00 +0000 http://landshape.org/enm/spurious-regression-random-walk/#comment-7302 The trouble is when you have people claiming disaster in100yrs they dont deal in facts,the reality is n ne can forcast that far ahead accurately nor can they ever change nature or the weather .a very good article !you know its a scam when nothing is based on fact . The trouble is when you have people claiming disaster in100yrs they dont deal in facts,the reality is n ne can forcast that far ahead accurately nor can they ever change nature or the weather .a very good article !you know its a scam when nothing is based on fact .

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