Comments on: Swanson and Tsonis 2009 on Regime-shifts

By: cohenite

cohenite — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 10:29:50 +0000

Bob, I guess Figure 1(a) from David's paper sums up what I'm trying to say; the flat period after the break indicates no build or upward trend after the break; at least in Australia; the global situation in Figure2 is slightly different.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 10:12:25 +0000

Thanks. I'm often unclear on the methodology for putting SST data together. Can you point me to an exposition of what's what?

By: cohenite

cohenite — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 05:29:50 +0000

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 05:29:00 +0000

Bob, I guess Figure 1(a) from David’s paper sums up what I’m trying to say; the flat period after the break indicates no build or upward trend after the break; at least in Australia; the global situation in Figure2 is slightly different.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 05:12:25 +0000

Thanks. I'm often unclear on the methodology for putting SST data together. Can you point me to an exposition of what's what?

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 05:12:00 +0000

Thanks. I’m often unclear on the methodology for putting SST data together. Can you point me to an exposition of what’s what?

By: Bob Tisdale

Bob Tisdale — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:05:58 +0000

cohenite: You asked, “…wouldn't it also be fair to say that the effect of such a period of dominance on temperatures could be an initial break and then the maintainenece of the new plateau created by the break up in temperature at the beginning when the La Nina dominated period ends and the El Nino dominated period begins as happened in 1976-78?”Could you rephrase the question?

By: Bob Tisdale

Bob Tisdale — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:05:00 +0000

cohenite: You asked, “…wouldn’t it also be fair to say that the effect of such a period of dominance on temperatures could be an initial break and then the maintainenece of the new plateau created by the break up in temperature at the beginning when the La Nina dominated period ends and the El Nino dominated period begins as happened in 1976-78?”

Could you rephrase the question?

By: cohenite

cohenite — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 01:44:53 +0000

Thanks Bob, I had looked at your reemergence thread before; as usual, very interesting! You say that a predominance of El Nino, or at least a series of El Nino which are not counterbalnced by La Ninas of equal or greater power will gradually increase temperature over the duration of the period of El Nino dominance; wouldn't it also be fair to say that the effect of such a period of dominance on temperatures could be an initial break and then the maintainenece of the new plateau created by the break up in temperature at the beginning when the La Nina dominated period ends and the El Nino dominated period begins as happened in 1976-78?It seems to me that depending on the nominated period if there is a balance between the disparate phases then temperature trend will be flat or subject to other exogenous factors; any period where there is a dominance of say El Nino will have a break and plateaus either side; any AGW effect has to be in the slopes either side of the break[s]; this appears to be what David's paper suggests, imo.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 01:44:00 +0000

It seems to me that depending on the nominated period if there is a balance between the disparate phases then temperature trend will be flat or subject to other exogenous factors; any period where there is a dominance of say El Nino will have a break and plateaus either side; any AGW effect has to be in the slopes either side of the break[s]; this appears to be what David’s paper suggests, imo.