Tag Archives : CSIRO

Errors of Global Warming Effects Modeling 32

Since 2006, in between promoting numeracy in education, and examples of simple statistics using topical issues from the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) to illustrate points, I asked the question “Have these models been validated?”, in blog posts and occasionally submissions to journals. This post summarizes these efforts. Species Extinctions Predictions of massive species […]

Jan Pompe Science Project 37

Some time ago I had a brief discussion with Leif Svalgaard on ClimateAudit blog inspired by an exchange between Leif and David Archibald when the latter complained that Leif’s TSI reconstruction was “too flat”. The sunspots exhibited cyclic variability in terms of the frequency of the cycles and that most thermostats work by pulse width […]

Biased Research Studies 16

Detecting bias in research is not so difficult when you know what to look for. The conclusions are not justified by the data. Instead, the data may confirm, be consistent with, (or not inconsistent with) the conclusions. Working against this however are basic human motives on the part of the writer, to find novel and […]

Drought Exceptional Circumstances 3

Ian Castles organized a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report by two Accredited Statisticians, who also review my first report on the skill of the climate models. The statisticians find inadequate validation of the models of drought, as well as suboptimal regionalization in the DECR. They also find my analysis lacked force, and so […]

Validation of Climate Effect Models: Response to Brewer and Other 7

David R.B. Stockwell February 4, 2009 Abstract A review by independent Accredited Statisticians, Brewer and Other [KB09], suggested that some claims in the report “Tests of Regional Climate Model Validity in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report” [DS08] were premature. Additional tests suggested by KB09 support the claim made in the original report of “no credible […]

Some comments on the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) and on Dr David Stockwell’s critique of it 8

K.R.W. Brewer1 and A.N. Other1 28 January, 2009 1. K.R.W. Brewer is an Accredited Statistician of the Statistical Society of Australia Inc. (SSAI) and a long term Visiting Fellow at the School of Finance and Applied Statistics within the College of Business and Economics at the Australian National University. 2. A.N. Other is a pseudonym […]

Letters 9

Below are Peter Gallagher’s thoughts on the reviews of the submission to AMM. Contrast this with ac’s impressions that “To my reading the reviewer’s criticisms are reasonable and pertinent.” It goes to show, that reasonable and unrelated people can see things in different ways. Where is the resolvability of fact in the review process? Consensus? […]

Do increases in greenhouse gases cause droughts in Australia? 16

Peter Gallagher reports that even while the coals are still warm, some are already blaming the Victorian fires on increases in greenhouse gases. The following summarizes indications of decline in droughts in Australia from 1900 to the present, compiled from data provided with the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report. Some of this information was provided in […]

Climate Flagship Response 3

A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left […]

DECR Review Series 20

Posts over the next few weeks will be updates on the status of reviews myself and others have initiated of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). It is prudent to subject your views to the rigors of peer review. It is the way to knowledge to search […]

Risky Statistical Prediction Methods 18

A couple of days ago, Luke, a frequent commenter, sent in a number of links to a new Australian Government drought initiative. The Minister Tony Burke has appointed an Expert Panel to examine the social impacts of drought as part of its national review of exceptional circumstances (EC) funding, which argues for a major change, […]

Linear Regression R Squared 43

One of the tests of climate models predicting drought in my review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report was the correlation of predicted area under drought with actual observed area under drought. Lazar criticized my inclusion of the R-Squared (r2) coefficient, an issue I didn’t follow up at the time. … correlating model predictions for […]

CSIRO Progress in Science Law 6

Geoff Sherrington has been drawing attention to some changes in the legal language attached to various emails and reports associated with the CSIRO and the Climate Adaptation Flagship (CAF). Since I have been posting up emails in an attempt to hold people accountable, I have been looking into the legality. In the case of reports, […]

Climate Adaptation Flagship Update 21

Below is the email received a month ago from Dr Andrew Ash, Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship, promising a formal response to issues raised about the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) concerning no apparent attempt at validation of the climate models for drought in the report, or evidence of skill at modeling drought. No […]

In the News 26

Support was expressed for our efforts with the DECR from a reader of the Sydney Morning Herald below. Letters to the Editor, Sydney Morning Herald – 4 Oct 2008 Meanwhile, the Department of Climate Change is hiring in a big way! Need I say you could get a lot of economically productive research done in […]

Fishery Predictions of Global Warming 14

“Climate change could devastate fishing industry: CSIRO” shouts the ABC news, as scientists predict the salmon, rock lobster and abalone industries, barramundi, prawn and mudcrab fisheries will be affected by changing rainfall patterns. In a welcome trend, the fishing industry have questioned the climate findings in the CSIRO report. Industry representatives see the report contributing […]

Submission 1: Australian Meteorological Magazine (AMM) 8

The venue for more formal debate on controversial topics is the scientific journals. As part of my trek into the desert of drought predictions in Australia, I submitted a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances report (abstract below) two days ago to the Australian Meteorological Magazine. To date I have not received an acknowledgement of […]

Simple Statistical Model Using Recent Droughts 12

Changes in the exceptionally dry years (droughts) have been estimated in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) in two ways: (a) a statistical modification of the observed rainfall data (Box 3); and (b) analysis of simulations from 13 climate models. Up until now I have been looking at the modeling in approach (b). Today I […]

Trade Practices Act 27

Any claims or representations made by a business must be accurate and truthful. If a business has been dishonest, exaggerated the truth, or created a misleading impression, then there is a very broad provision in the Trade Practices Act to prohibit such conduct by a corporation. For example, the ACCC webpage on misleading and deceptive […]

Temperature Index Drought 4

Following up on the post from yesterday, I test the assumption underpinning the regional climate change work in Australia. The most common approach has been to assess how well each of the available models simulates the present climate of the region (e.g. Dessai et al. 2005), on the assumption that the more accurately a model […]