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	<title>Niche Modeling &#187; CSIRO</title>
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	<link>http://landshape.org/enm</link>
	<description>The Power of Numeracy</description>
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		<title>Errors of Global Warming Effects Modeling</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:09:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DECR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hockey-stick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rahmstorf]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2330</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since 2006, in between promoting numeracy in education, and examples of simple statistics using topical issues from the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) to illustrate points, I asked the question "Have these models been validated?", in blog posts and occasionally submissions to journals. This post summarizes these efforts. Species Extinctions Predictions of massive species extinctions due to AGW came into prominence with a January 2004 paper in Nature called Extinction Risk from Climate Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/errors-of-global-warming-effects-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>25</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Jan Pompe Science Project</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/jan-pompe-science-project/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/jan-pompe-science-project/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 09:42:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jan pompe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rahmstorf]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=2158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some time ago I had a brief discussion with Leif Svalgaard on ClimateAudit blog inspired by an exchange between Leif and David Archibald when the latter complained that Leif's TSI reconstruction was "too flat". The sunspots exhibited cyclic variability in terms of the frequency of the cycles and that most thermostats work by pulse width modulation and some digital music with pulse frequency modulation. Both these work in a similar manner the thermal inertia of whatever the thermostat is controlling Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/jan-pompe-science-project/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>23</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Biased Research Studies</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/biased-research-studies/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/biased-research-studies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 19:50:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Detecting bias in research is not so difficult when you know what to look for. The conclusions are not justified by the data. Instead, the data may confirm, be consistent with, (or not inconsistent with) the conclusions. Working against this however are basic human motives on the part of the writer, to find novel and interesting approaches, find significant results when nothing is there, to be accepted by their colleagues, to get grants and be published. According to Geoffrey Miller (The Mating Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/biased-research-studies/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Drought Exceptional Circumstances</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/drought-exceptional-circumstances/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/drought-exceptional-circumstances/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:23:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1496</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ian Castles organized a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report by two Accredited Statisticians, who also review my first report on the skill of the climate models. The statisticians find inadequate validation of the models of drought, as well as suboptimal regionalization in the DECR. They also find my analysis lacked force, and so I have done additional analysis in line with their suggestions. The last few posts in the series have consisted of reviews of an unsuccessful submission Read more [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Validation of Climate Effect Models: Response to Brewer and Other</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/validation-of-climate-effect-models-response-to-brewer-and-other/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/validation-of-climate-effect-models-response-to-brewer-and-other/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2009 14:47:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1505</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[David R.B. Stockwell February 4, 2009 Abstract A review by independent Accredited Statisticians, Brewer and Other [KB09], suggested that some claims in the report â€œTests of Regional Climate Model Validity in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Reportâ€ [DS08] were premature. Additional tests suggested by KB09 support the claim made in the original report of â€œno credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarationsâ€. The contributions Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/validation-of-climate-effect-models-response-to-brewer-and-other/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Some comments on the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) and on Dr David Stockwellâ€™s critique of it</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/some-comments-on-the-drought-exceptional-circumstances-report-decr-and-on-dr-david-stockwell%e2%80%99s-critique-of-it/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/some-comments-on-the-drought-exceptional-circumstances-report-decr-and-on-dr-david-stockwell%e2%80%99s-critique-of-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2009 14:46:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1499</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[K.R.W. Brewer1 and A.N. Other1 28 January, 2009 1. K.R.W. Brewer is an Accredited Statistician of the Statistical Society of Australia Inc. (SSAI) and a long term Visiting Fellow at the School of Finance and Applied Statistics within the College of Business and Economics at the Australian National University. 2. A.N. Other is a pseudonym for another Accredited Statistician of the SSAI who prefers to remain anonymous. Full responsibility for the content is taken by K.R.W. Brewer. Abstract The Read more [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>7</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Letters</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/letters/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/letters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:10:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1686</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Below are Peter Gallagher's thoughts on the reviews of the submission to AMM. Contrast this with ac's impressions that "To my reading the reviewerâ€™s criticisms are reasonable and pertinent." It goes to show, that reasonable and unrelated people can see things in different ways. Where is the resolvability of fact in the review process? Consensus? Hi David, Thanks for sending me these papers. Reading the reviews, it seems to me that your submission has been poorly understood by the Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/letters/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Examples of Research Bias</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/examples-of-research-bias/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/examples-of-research-bias/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 01:21:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rahmstorf]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Financial Times recently reported on the Australian bushfires, linking them to increases in greenhouse gases. We take another look at the data in the DECR and find Australia is getting wetter not drier: Scientists say Australia, with its harsh environment, is set to be one of the nations most affected by climate change. â€œContinued increases in greenhouse gases will lead to further warming and drier conditions in southern Australia, so the [fire] risks are likely to slightly worsen,â€ Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/examples-of-research-bias/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>16</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Do increases in greenhouse gases cause droughts in Australia?</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/do-increases-in-greenhouses-cause-droughts-in-australia/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/do-increases-in-greenhouses-cause-droughts-in-australia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 11:23:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1650</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Peter Gallagher reports that even while the coals are still warm, some are already blaming the Victorian fires on increases in greenhouse gases. The following summarizes indications of decline in droughts in Australia from 1900 to the present, compiled from data provided with the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report. Some of this information was provided in the submission the the Australian Meteorological Magazine (more about this tomorrow). Drought is defined as the percentage of area with Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/do-increases-in-greenhouses-cause-droughts-in-australia/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Climate Flagship Response</title>
		<link>http://landshape.org/enm/climate-flagship-response/</link>
		<comments>http://landshape.org/enm/climate-flagship-response/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:23:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>david stockwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CSIRO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hockey-stick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miskolczi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rahmstorf]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://landshape.org/enm/?p=1569</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left that for another time: The percentage of droughted area appears to be a â€™bounded extreme value, peaks over thresholdâ€™ or bounded POT statistic. The Read more [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://landshape.org/enm/climate-flagship-response/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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