Tag Archives : Hockey-stick


Errors of Global Warming Effects Modeling 32

Since 2006, in between promoting numeracy in education, and examples of simple statistics using topical issues from the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) to illustrate points, I asked the question “Have these models been validated?”, in blog posts and occasionally submissions to journals. This post summarizes these efforts. Species Extinctions Predictions of massive species […]


Redoubt now Ultraplinian 21

The rumbling Alaskan volcano Redoubt has exploded producing a stratosphere-reaching plume in excess of 60,000 ft (17 km). An eruption is termed ‘ultraplinian’ if its ejecta reaches the stratosphere, about 10km in height. Dust and gases in the stratosphere are known to depress the global temperature for up to a few years after the eruption. […]


Climate Flagship Response 3

A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left […]


Creating a Statistical Model with a Cherry-picking Process 72

Steve McIntyre, always gracious in his acknowledgments, mentioned my note in the Australian Institute of Geologists newsletter (AIG News No 83 Mar 2006 pp14) in a post yesterday “The Full Network“. We’ve discussed on many occasions that you can “get” a HS merely from picking upward-trending series from networks of red noise (David Stockwell had […]


What is environmental modeling? 18

How many narcissists does it take to change a light bulb? Just one — but he has to wait for the whole world to revolve around him. Blog watchers would have noticed a post at ClimateAudit where Steve has reprinted a comment by Ian Jolliffe on the form of PCA (decentered) used way back in […]


Niche Modeling. Chapter Summary 10

Here is a summary of the chapters in my upcoming book Niche Modeling to be published by CRC Press. Many of the topics have been introduced as posts on the blog. My deepest thanks to everyone who has commented and so helped in the refinement of ideas, and particularly in providing motivation and focus. Writing […]


Rings of Noise on Hockey Stick Graph 22

Finally, one journalist has the message right: Duane Freese in his article — “Hockey Stick Shortened?” — at TechCentralStation reports on the National Academy of Sciences report “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years“. Repetition of the consensus view of strong evidence of recent global warming is not newsworthy. Increase in the uncertainty of […]


AIG Article 12

The Australian Institute of Geoscientists News has published online my article “Reconstruction of past climate using series with red noise” on page 14. Many thanks to Louis Hissink the editor for the rapidity of this publication. It is actually a very interesting newsletter with articles on the IPCC, and a summary of the state of […]


A new temperature reconstruction 54

In honor of the National Research Council of the National Academies committee to study “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 1,000-2,000 Years” meeting at this moment, I offer my own climate reconstruction based on the methods blessed by dendroclimatology. The graph below shows reconstructed temperature anomolies over 2000 years, with the surface temperature measurements from […]


Peer-censorship and scientific fraud 20

The major scientific journals are often regarded as the touchstones of scientific truth. However, their reputation has been tarnished with yet another major scientific fraud unfolding over South Korean researcher Hwang Woo-suk’s peer-reviewed and published Stem Cell research. Should the publication of these results be viewed as simple ‘mistakes’, a crime by a deviant individual, […]