Edward Vul, Christine Harris, Piotr Winkielman, & Harold Pashler have published research that provides useful insights into the practice of 'cherry picking' or prior selection of desirable results leading to exaggerated significance. They also demonstrates the effect in a comprehensive survey of studies in the field of social neuroscience.
To further 'pin the thumbs of researchers to the table', and ensure they are noticed and not ignored, they name all the studies explicitly, listing those Read more [...] 16 com
The rumbling Alaskan volcano Redoubt has exploded producing a stratosphere-reaching plume in excess of 60,000 ft (17 km). An eruption is termed 'ultraplinian' if its ejecta reaches the stratosphere, about 10km in height. Dust and gases in the stratosphere are known to depress the global temperature for up to a few years after the eruption. The extent of cooling depends on the amount and type of material, the size and duration of ultraplinian eruption, and the latitude (high latitude eruptions Read more [...] 6 com
Jan Pompe sent in a draft of a model of the atmosphere in the form of a circuit diagram. There the passive elements are expressed as capacitors and resistors. Active elements producing amplification as in Cosmic Ray Flux are modeled as Field Effect Transistors (FETs).
I've separated the particle and magnetic fluxes (magnetic flux is alternating over ~22 years) according to Leif Svalgaard the TSI from the sun has been very nearly constant over the past 100 or so years and I'm inclined Read more [...] 14 com
Should we believe the cosmic ray flux theory (CRF)? Here I attempt to answer this question quantitatively, by calculating the strength of evidence so-far presented for CRF as a major forcing factor in climate change. Specifically we need to ask, what is the probability of being wrong about CRF? This can be calculated by combining the significance values of independent lines of evidence.
Below I have started calculating and tabulating the P values. The first 8 rows were worked out from the difference Read more [...] 16 com
Nir's 2005 paper "On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget", available as pdf here, provides a solid case linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. The effect is consistent over hugely different timescales, using completely different indicators -- from cosmic sources of CRF at the Phanerozoic, to the shortest time scale of the 11-yr solar cycle. The fit is extraordinary. The statistics competent. The bottom line?
Thus, anthropogenic Read more [...] 28 com
A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left that for another time:
The percentage of droughted area appears to be a â€™bounded extreme value, peaks over thresholdâ€™ or bounded POT statistic. The Read more [...] one
Prediction is dangerous to your reputation.
If you don't make a clear prediction (a climate cycle, a solar cycle, a financial trend...) then you are just doing your best. What comes does not damage your reputation.
One way to predict is to reproject on a regular basis, called 'moving the goalposts'. David Hathaway of NASA illustrates this strategy, as show in a recent post at WUWT.
Here is Hathaway’s most familiar graphic, which has an active sun in the background. Perhaps it is time to Read more [...] 20 com
I have converted the draft of the introductory document The new climate theory of Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi by Dr. Noor van Andel into a Wiki. The permissions are set for registered users of the Wiki to freely edit it. There are a great deal of areas where it could be improved and added too, and an opportunity to learn more about Wikis.
Register here to edit.
Wiki Syntax is here.
The synopsis of the document points to the importance of right theory, and does a good job of comparing the new theory Read more [...] 87 com
Comment by Ken Gregory moved from Greenhouse Heat Engine.
Last month I asked Ferenc Miskolczi to calculate a 60 year trend of optical depths using radiosonde data I compiled from the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory to confirm his prediction of constant optical depth. We finally got the results:
*There has been no increase in the effective amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere during the last 60 years.*
Miskolczi's theory shows that the atmosphere maintains a â€œsaturatedâ€ Read more [...] 108 com
Here is a treat for those following the discussion of Miskolczi's new theory of greenhouse warming. Noor van Andel has sent a simplified explanation of Miskolczi's theory, put on Wikichecks here. Noor is actually in the greenhouse business!
Noor's letter below refers to a history of the debate between Noor and another prominent scientist in the Netherlands Dr. Rob van Dorland. Rob has also graciously responded with explanations of the Cabauw data he collected, and a link to his thesis, in the Read more [...] 77 com
Is Kirchhoff's rule in atmosphere proven by the Cabauw measurements, or not? I had earlier received a note on calculations by Noor van Andel claiming, yes, Kirchoff's relationship as used in Miskolczi's theory was confirmed by the linear regression of Ed (longwave down radiation) and Su(1-Ta) (longwave surface up, without transmitted longwave). Miskolczi also confirmed this result, using older results in a the previous post in this series.
However, I just received an email from Rob van Dorland Read more [...] 25 com
While contributors Barton, Jan, Neal and Nick have been grilling Ferenc Miskolczi on another thread, and been doing a fantastic job of clarifying for average readers the use of the Virial Theorem in Miskolczi's paper, Ferenc has sent some results pertaining to the use of Kirchhoff's Law, which was another source of contention.
I don't have a lot of time to go through this right away, so I will just post the links for now. It includes a scan of a paper from 1992 dealing with estimation of long wave Read more [...] 10 com
Anthony Watts has
uncovered some data from the NOAA website that appears to show water vapor levels have been decreasing for the last sixty years.
Strangely, a number of recent peer-reviewed publications claim that water vapor is increasing:
Water Vapor Feedback is Rapidly Warming Europe
Elevated surface temperatures due to other greenhouse gases have enhanced water evaporation and contributed to a cycle that stimulates further surface temperature increases, according to a report in Geophysical Read more [...] 57 com
Here I have started to explore a new theory of global warming, not from greenhouse gas buildup in the troposphere, but from changes in stratospheric temperature caused largely by ultra-Plinian (stratosphere reaching) eruptions. A brief article entitled A Stratospheric Compensation Model of Climate Change, is in the May 8 issue of Australian Institute of Geologists Newsletter, pages 12-13.
The main lines of evidence presented for this theory are:
1. A correlation between the inverse of the global Read more [...] 9 com
Here is a neat way to sum up a range of models of greenhouse effect using the overall energy balance equation of Miskolczi (M7). The energy balance equation represents two flux terms of equal magnitude, propagating into opposite directions, while using the same solar energy F as an energy source. The first term (Su-F) heats the atmosphere and the second term (Ed-Eu) maintains the surface energy balance.
F -- Solar flux in
Su -- Surface flux up
Eu -- Atmospheric flux up
Ed -- Atmospheric flux down
They Read more [...] 66 com
In reviewing the points of controversy raised here in Miskolczi's controversial theory of (almost constant) greenhouse effect and the impossibility of runaway global warming, I thought about the role of convection.
Convection is a heat engine. A heat engine is defined as a device that converts heat energy into mechanical energy. In this model, the circulation of the air is analogous to a Stirling or other simple heat engine, producing work as the result of temperature differential between the Read more [...] 880 com
Before delving into the fourth and final installment of Miskolczi's controversial theory of the greenhouse effect, below is a slide depicting the relationships covered so-far. The last part, on radiative equilibrium, binds warming as a function of optical depth (or concentration of greenhouse gases) and will be a bit technical.
Figure: The major relationships between fluxes in the description of Miskolczi's atmospheric theory.
Each of the installments has dealt with a fundamental principle of Read more [...] 5 com
A very interesting theory of global warming proposed by the Hungarian mathematician
Ferenc Miskolczi contains a simple proof that the greenhouse effect
is bound to a fixed value and cannot 'runaway', or even increase. In order to understand, or audit, parts of the theory I step through a simplified version of the derivation of his result below.
The first step in modeling a system's dynamics is representing the main
constant relationships, usually based on conservation of energy.
The 'big picture' Read more [...] 37 com
Douglass et al. 2007 may represent a history-of-science-in-the-making showdown between two theories, the infinitely-thick theory of atmospheres as used in GCMs, and the semi-transparent atmospheric model as proposed by Miskolczi.
It misses the point -- that the observations discriminate between theories -- to focus on the details of the statistical test of the GCMs. To get to the point of understanding why basic theory
might be wrong takes, for me, a lot of work as its not
my field. But its much Read more [...] 17 com
What are the implications and limitations of the semi-infinite atmosphere theory of Ferenc Miskolczi -- a theoretical model for greenhouse effect in the atmosphere?
Unlike current models suggesting a range of 1.5C to 5C increase in global temperatures from doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, the semi-infinite theory suggests very little warming from increases in greenhouse gases, around 0.24C for CO2 doubling. This is because the earth's atmosphere adjusts water vapor levels and cloud albedo to Read more [...] 25 com