Tag Archives : Miskolczi


Cherry Picking — The paper formerly known as “Voodoo Correlations in Social Neuroscience” 17

Edward Vul, Christine Harris, Piotr Winkielman, & Harold Pashler have published research that provides useful insights into the practice of ‘cherry picking’ or prior selection of desirable results leading to exaggerated significance. They also demonstrates the effect in a comprehensive survey of studies in the field of social neuroscience. To further ‘pin the thumbs of […]


Redoubt now Ultraplinian 15

The rumbling Alaskan volcano Redoubt has exploded producing a stratosphere-reaching plume in excess of 60,000 ft (17 km). An eruption is termed ‘ultraplinian’ if its ejecta reaches the stratosphere, about 10km in height. Dust and gases in the stratosphere are known to depress the global temperature for up to a few years after the eruption. […]


Probability of the Cosmic Ray Flux Theory of Climate Change 35

Should we believe the cosmic ray flux theory (CRF)? Here I attempt to answer this question quantitatively, by calculating the strength of evidence so-far presented for CRF as a major forcing factor in climate change. Specifically we need to ask, what is the probability of being wrong about CRF? This can be calculated by combining […]


Shaviv and Miskolczi 31

Nir’s 2005 paper “On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget”, available as pdf here, provides a solid case linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. The effect is consistent over hugely different timescales, using completely different indicators — from cosmic sources of CRF at the Phanerozoic, […]


Climate Flagship Response 1

A number of familiar tests, often used to evaluate the performance of models: R2 correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and similarity of trends and return period, were reported here, noting not much evidence of skill in the DECR models compared with observations at any of these. I also said what a better treatment might entail but left […]


NASA Hathaway slides the goalposts 25

Prediction is dangerous to your reputation. If you don’t make a clear prediction (a climate cycle, a solar cycle, a financial trend…) then you are just doing your best. What comes does not damage your reputation. One way to predict is to reproject on a regular basis, called ‘moving the goalposts’. David Hathaway of NASA […]


Significance of Global Warming 111

Comment by Ken Gregory moved from Greenhouse Heat Engine. Last month I asked Ferenc Miskolczi to calculate a 60 year trend of optical depths using radiosonde data I compiled from the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory to confirm his prediction of constant optical depth. We finally got the results:


Optical Depth of CO2 Explained 78

Here is a treat for those following the discussion of Miskolczi’s new theory of greenhouse warming. Noor van Andel has sent a simplified explanation of Miskolczi’s theory, put on Wikichecks here. Noor is actually in the greenhouse business! Noor’s letter below refers to a history of the debate between Noor and another prominent scientist in […]


Regression Conclusion 36

Is Kirchhoff’s rule in atmosphere proven by the Cabauw measurements, or not? I had earlier received a note on calculations by Noor van Andel claiming, yes, Kirchoff’s relationship as used in Miskolczi’s theory was confirmed by the linear regression of Ed (longwave down radiation) and Su(1-Ta) (longwave surface up, without transmitted longwave). Miskolczi also confirmed […]


Experimental Verification of Kirchhoff Law in Atmosphere 27

While contributors Barton, Jan, Neal and Nick have been grilling Ferenc Miskolczi on another thread, and been doing a fantastic job of clarifying for average readers the use of the Virial Theorem in Miskolczi’s paper, Ferenc has sent some results pertaining to the use of Kirchhoff’s Law, which was another source of contention. I don’t […]


Greenhouse Thermodynamics and Water Vapor 57

Anthony Watts has uncovered some data from the NOAA website that appears to show water vapor levels have been decreasing for the last sixty years. Strangely, a number of recent peer-reviewed publications claim that water vapor is increasing: Water Vapor Feedback is Rapidly Warming Europe Elevated surface temperatures due to other greenhouse gases have enhanced […]


Another Theory of Global Warming 10

Here I have started to explore a new theory of global warming, not from greenhouse gas buildup in the troposphere, but from changes in stratospheric temperature caused largely by ultra-Plinian (stratosphere reaching) eruptions. A brief article entitled A Stratospheric Compensation Model of Climate Change, is in the May 8 issue of Australian Institute of Geologists […]


Models of Greenhouse Effect 74

Here is a neat way to sum up a range of models of greenhouse effect using the overall energy balance equation of Miskolczi (M7). The energy balance equation represents two flux terms of equal magnitude, propagating into opposite directions, while using the same solar energy F as an energy source. The first term (Su-F) heats […]


Greenhouse Heat Engine

In reviewing the points of controversy raised here in Miskolczi’s controversial theory of (almost constant) greenhouse effect and the impossibility of runaway global warming, I thought about the role of convection. Convection is a heat engine. A heat engine is defined as a device that converts heat energy into mechanical energy. In this model, the […]


Greenhouse Effect Physics 8

Before delving into the fourth and final installment of Miskolczi’s controversial theory of the greenhouse effect, below is a slide depicting the relationships covered so-far. The last part, on radiative equilibrium, binds warming as a function of optical depth (or concentration of greenhouse gases) and will be a bit technical. Figure: The major relationships between […]


Modeling Global Warming (Miskolczi Part 1) 38

A very interesting theory of global warming proposed by the Hungarian mathematician Ferenc Miskolczi contains a simple proof that the greenhouse effect is bound to a fixed value and cannot ‘runaway’, or even increase. In order to understand, or audit, parts of the theory I step through a simplified version of the derivation of his […]


Douglass et al 2007 and Atmospheric Models 17

Douglass et al. 2007 may represent a history-of-science-in-the-making showdown between two theories, the infinitely-thick theory of atmospheres as used in GCMs, and the semi-transparent atmospheric model as proposed by Miskolczi. It misses the point — that the observations discriminate between theories — to focus on the details of the statistical test of the GCMs. To […]


Free CO2 For All 28

What are the implications and limitations of the semi-infinite atmosphere theory of Ferenc Miskolczi — a theoretical model for greenhouse effect in the atmosphere? Unlike current models suggesting a range of 1.5C to 5C increase in global temperatures from doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, the semi-infinite theory suggests very little warming from increases in […]