Solar Predictions – What Is the Sun Going to Do?

The sun is one of the constant features of our lives. Every day it is there, even if it is hidden behind clouds.

In all its constancy, it does have many variations. Sometimes it emits more energy. That means more radiation that could damage our skin or health. So, knowing how the sun is going to behave in the coming months and years could be a relevant question.

No wonder scientists have invested time, energy, and resources in finding out how the sun behaved in the past and how it will behave in the future. The answers to those questions may surprise you.

The Sun

We take the sun for granted. After all, without the sun we wouldn’t even exist. Although the sun looks like a massive object, it consists of gas. The centre of the sun is so hot and dense that nuclear fusion occurs. This is the process that we perceive as rays of light.

Solar radiation that reaches the earth includes UV light. UV light is responsible for tanning of the skin but is also the cause of skin cancer after prolonged exposure. Skin cancer as a result of sunlight is becoming a bigger and bigger concern, especially in Australia.

Solar Cycles in the Past

The sun does not always emit the same amount of solar energy and thus the amount of radiation the earth receives is not always the same. Scientists have discovered that the sun goes through cycles of about 11 years. That has to do with a complicated physical process in which the north and south poles of the sun swap every 11 years.

With this knowledge, solar investigators have reconstructed the solar cycles over the last 11,400 years. They found that there were dips in solar activity between around 1650 and 1700, the so-called Maunder Minimum. The lower activity was noticeable in the average temperature.

There was another dip in temperature in the early 19th century. Scientists have correlated this with another dip in solar activity, the Dalton Minimum.

Currently, we are living in a time of heightened solar activity. The last know peak was around 1200 and it is about 4000 years ago that the sun was at a similar activity level.

The 25th Solar Cycle

The 25th solar cycle started in December 2019. This is the 25th cycle based on the data that researchers have gathered on solar activity since 1755. December 2019 found the solar activity at a minimum.

The average length of a cycle is about 11 years. Therefore, there will be a peak in sun strength around 2025.

Solar Flares

We have heard much about solar flares in the media in recent years. They have caused a lot of damage to electronic equipment and even blackouts.

Solar flares are the result of solar activity. The sun emits high levels of electromagnetic radiation, and some are worried that these solar flares are dangerous to human health.

The truth is that these types of radiation do not reach the earth. Solar flares are thus not a threat to us as humans on the earth. The earth has a special shield that filters out most of this electromagnetic radiation.

So, it is dangerous to the technology that we have floating in outer space, satellites for example. The earth’s protective blanket does not extend that far into space.

The Effects of Higher Solar Activity on Human Health

There does not seem to be a clear correlation between higher or lower solar activity and the number of cases of skin cancer. Yet, it has been established that UV radiation from the sun affects the health and appearance of our skin. There are at least three different negative effects. Here they are listed in order of severity.

• Sunburns: Sunburns are very common and have the most noticeable direct effect. Sunburn is a sort of inflammation of the skin. The body responds by sending more blood to the burnt area. The skin often becomes sensitive or even painful and becomes bright red. Depending on the severity, the skin on the affected area peels off. Skin that is less accustomed to sunlight burns more easily. There is a marked correlation between the number of suffered sunburns and skin cancer in the long run.
• Skin blemishes and tanned skin: Tanned skin looks good but repeated exposure to UV radiation causes the skin to age more rapidly. The skin thins and loses elasticity. Other obvious effects are freckles, wrinkles, and other skin blemishes. This kind of damage is irreversible.
• Skin cancer: Scientists have not completely established the precise mechanisms but there seems to be a direct relation between (over)exposure to sunlight and the development of skin cancer. In most cases, exposure to UV radiation does not seem to be the only contributing factor to the development of cancer. A curious observation is that most of the damage is done during childhood and adolescence. Skin cancer appears most often in the parts of the body to receive more sunlight, such as the ears and arms. There is also a relation between the number of cases and sun strength. Skin cancer is also not limited to humans. Animals too can develop skin cancer due to overexposure to sunlight.

Conclusions

Scientists have learned a lot about the sun. The sun has a marked effect on processes on the earth. Also, the sun shows differences in activity over periods. That does not mean that heightened activity leads to threats to our health. Still, it is good practice to protect your skin from its harmful rays.