Fact Checking the Climate Council

The Climate Council mini-statement called Bushfires and Climate Change in Australia – The Facts states in support of their view that "1. In Australia, climate change is influencing both the frequency and intensity of extreme hot days, as well as prolonged periods of low rainfall. This increases the risk of bushfires." Southeast Australia is experiencing a long-term drying trend. A moment of fact-checking the BoM recorded rainfall in Southeastern Australia reveals no trend in rainfall. Another Read more [...]

A Practical Project for the Hyperloop

When the storied Tesla Motors CEO promoted the Hyperloop, a proposed California high speed rail project between San Francisco and Los Angeles in 30 minutes, instead of the 2 hours and 40 minutes on the VFT, people naturally got excited. But there are three questions. Will the ticket price be compeditive with existing air travel? Second, will the novel technology meet problems in research and development? Third, would consumers like being shot along a tube at almost supersonic speeds? Given Read more [...]

Error in calculating Hyperloop ticket price

The semi-technical document on the Hyperloop mass transport system, recently produced by Elon Musk, estimated the price of a one-way ticket as $20. Transporting 7.4 million people each way and amortizing the cost of $6 billion over 20 years gives a ticket price of $20 for a one-way trip for the passenger version of Hyperloop. Multiply 7.4 million trips by two then by $20 over 20 years and you get $5.92 billion dollars which is about the $6 billion estimated cost of construction of the Hyperloop. Read more [...]

Hyperloop for Sydney – Melbourne – Brisbane link?

Elon Musk unveiled his concept for a new mass transport system consisting of capsules shot along a partially evacuated pipe at very high speed. The details contain estimates of a capital cost of less than $10 billion and the cost of a one-way ticket of $20 -- not bad. Compare that to the estimated capital cost of $100 billion for a very fast train (VFT) system, a reduction in the transit time between Los Angeles and San Francisco from 3 hours to 30 minutes, and the proposal looks very attractive. Read more [...]

Cold Fusion a Victory for the Free Market

Free marketers and global warming alarmists alike should be heartened by the handful of companies that claim a zero carbon emissions commercial energy plant based on a safe cold fusion (CF) reaction. An Italian company demonstrated a product called E-Cat in 2011, and a Greek company named Defkalion also provided a profession demonstration of their Hyperion product. The distain for CF by the mainstream government-funded research community and the lack of government funding support is well known. Read more [...]

Examples of Scientific Method

Note to global warming alarmists: "Science is our way of describing — as best we can — how the world works. The world works perfectly well without us. Our thinking about it makes no important difference. When our minds make a guess about what's happening out there, if we put our guess to the test and we don't get the results we expect, as Feynman says, there can be only one conclusion: we're wrong." Read more [...]

Scientific Method Meets Global Warming

In general, there are only two way to prove something in science. 1. Prove a singular (fact) with an observation such as "black swans exist". 2. Disprove a universal (theory) with a singular fact such as "all swans are white". The inability to disprove a singular, or to prove a universal, is due to our finite limits to our observations. In general, we cannot gather the infinite observations required disprove (1) a fact, or to prove a universal (2). Scientists need to be rigorous and Read more [...]

Nanoplasmonics – a field is born

Axil Axil suggested in the Vortex discussion list - about the only list I read these days - the name nanoplasmonics for developments in cold fusion (while referencing a very funny mockery of how academics will revise the history of cold fusion in 2015 - "History is written by the losers"). The field is so new, Wikipedia has yet to have an entry dedicated to "nanoplasmonics", except as a subheading to an entry Surface Plasmon Polaritons. An effect seen in bulk Nickel powder is not a surface effect. Read more [...]

How did climate skeptics know the scare was not real?

The climate scare is collapsing, it seems, as climate scientists everywhere are renouncing their previous certainty. Skeptics OTOH have been consistent. This blog in particular has been challenging since 2005 the establishment global warming views on such predictions as mass extinctions, significance of warming, decreasing rainfall and droughts. It is instructive to look into ourselves and ask - how could the skeptics have been right - when the consensus of the learned experts thought differently? Read more [...]

How does cold fusion work?

A scientific paper by Defkalion Energy sets our their theory behind the desk-top reactor. 1. Powdered nickel is loaded with hydrogen and heated its Debye temperature - which is the temperature which maximizes the vibration of the individual molecules in the nickel lattice. 2. The hydrogen molecules (H2) are dissociated into a plasma by a spark from a spark plug. In the plasma the H atoms (consisting of a proton and an electron) are excited into elliptical orbits. Due to the elliptical orbit, Read more [...]

Defkalion Demo Packing Heat

Todays demonstration by Defkalion Energy of their Hyperion Nickel/Hydrogen reactor showed their technology is ready for industrialization. This technology promises to lower fuel costs by 1000 times. Energy will soon be abundant and safe and burning carbon unnecessary. Coal and renewables are dead men walking. See the series of articles on LENR since 2010. Read more [...]

UQ Fellow Spews Fear

John Cook, Climate Communication Fellow from the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland is on the record saying: Climate change like atom bomb and "animal species are responding to global warming by mating earlier in the year. This isn't because animals are getting randier, it's because the seasons themselves are shifting" IMHO science is in need of a major shakeup. Read more [...]

More Evidence of a Sun-Climate Connection

Bjerknes compensation assumes a constant total poleward energy transport (and an inverse relation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport fluxes (Bjerknes, 1964)). Contrary to this assumption, there is empirical evidence of a simultaneous increase in poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport during the most recent warming period since the mid-1970s (aka the Great Pacific Climate Shift). This paper argues that TSI directly modulates ocean–atmospheric meridional heat transport. Solar Read more [...]

The Widening Gap Between Present Global Temperature and IPCC Model Projections

An increase in global temperature required to match the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections is becoming increasingly unlikely. A shift to a mean projected pathway of 3 degrees increase by the end of the century would require an immediate, large, and sustained increase in temperature which seems physically impossible. Global surface temperatures have not increased at all in the last 18 years. The trend over the last few years is even falling slightly. Global temperatures Read more [...]

Q: Where Do Climate Models Fail? A: Almost Everywhere

"How much do I fail thee. Let me count the ways" Ben Santer's latest model/observation comparison paper demonstrates that climate realists were right and climate models exaggerate warming: The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes. Where do the models fail? 1. Significantly warmer than reality (95% CI) in the lower troposphere at all latitudes, except for the arctic. 2. Significantly warmer Read more [...]

East Pacific Region Temperatures: Climate Models Fail Again

Bob Tisdale, author of the awesome book “Who Turned on the Heat?” presented an interesting problem that turns out to be a good application of robust statistical tests called empirical fluctuation processes. Bob notes that sea surface temperature (SST) in a large region of the globe in the Eastern Pacific does not appear to have warmed at all in the last 30 years, in contrast to model simulations (CMIP SST) for that region that show strong warming. The region in question is shown below. The Read more [...]

Santer: Climate Models are Exaggerating Warming – We Don’t Know Why

Ben Santer's latest model/observation comparison paper in PNAS finally admits what climate realists have been been saying for years -- climate models are exaggerating warming. From the abstract: On average, the models analyzed ... overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear... Their figure above shows the massive model fail. The blue and magenta lines are trend of the UAH and RSS satelite temperature observations averaged by Read more [...]

Solar Cycle 24 peaked? The experimentum crucis begins.

The WSO Polar field strengths - early indicators of solar maximums and minimums - have dived towards zero recently, indicating that its all down from here for solar cycle 24. Polar field reversals can occur within a year of sunspot maximum, but cycle 24 has been so insipid, it would not be surprising if the maximum sunspot number fails to reach the NOAA predicted peak of 90 spots per month, and get no higher than the current 60 spots per month. The peak in solar intensity was predicted Read more [...]

AGW Doesn’t Cointegrate: Beenstock’s Challenging Analysis Published

The Beenstock, Reingewertz, and Paldor paper on lack of cointegration of global temperature with CO2 has been accepted! This is a technical paper that we have been following since 2009 when an unpublished manuscript appeared, rebutting the statistical link between global temperature increase and anthropogenic factors like CO2, and so represents another nail in the coffin of CAGW. The editor praised the work as "challenging" and "needed in our field of work." Does the increase in CO2 concentration Read more [...]

Still no weakening of the Walker Circulation

Once upon a time, a weakening of the East-West Pacific overturning circulation – called the Walker circulation – was regarded in climate science as a robust response to anthropogenic global warming. This belief was based on studies in 2006 and 2007 using climate models. Together with a number of El Nino events (that are associated with a weakening of the Walker circulation) the alarm was raised in a string of papers (3-6) that global warming was now impacting the Pacific Ocean and that the Read more [...]

Circularity and the Hockeystick: coming around again

The recent posts at climateaudit and WUWT show that climate scientists Gergis and Karoly were willing to manipulate their study to ensure a hockeystick result in the Southern Hemisphere, and resisted advice from editors of the Journal of Climate to report alternative approaches to establish robustness of their study. The alternative the editors suggested of detrending the data first, revealed that most of the proxies collected in the Gergis study were uncorrelated with temperature, and so would Read more [...]

Is the problem alarmism, or prestige-seeking?

We all make mistakes. Sometime we exaggerate the risks, and sometimes we foolishly blunder into situations we regret. Climate skeptics often characterize their opponents as 'alarmist'. But is the real problem a tendency for climate scientists to be 'nervous ninnies'? I was intrigued by the recent verdict in the case of the scientists before an Italian court in the aftermath of a fatal earthquake. Roger Pielke Jr. relates that all is not as it seems. There is a popular misconception in circulation Read more [...]

The Creation of Consensus via Administrative Abuse

The existence of 'consensus' around core claims of global warming is often cited as some kind of warrant for action. A recent article by Roger Pielke Jr reported the IPCC response to his attempts to correct biases and errors in AR4 in his field of expertise -- extreme events losses. As noted at CA, he made four proposed error corrections to IPCC, all of which were refused. Since sociological psychological research is now regarded worthy of a generous share of science funding, a scholarly mind Read more [...]

Opinions on the New Zealand AGW Judgement

Apropos the New Zealand AGW case, comments below by Goon and Ross: # Goon (8) Says: September 8th, 2012 at 3:45 pm Justifying the unjustifiable. Don’t believe me…. then here is where the raw data lives. http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/ Register and have a look for yourself. Nothing even remotely approaching a 1 degree/century trend in the raw data from longer term climate sites. The only way NIWA can come up with this is by applying an extremely dodgy ‘adjustment’ to make all pre-1950′s Read more [...]

Lewandowsky article is a truly appalling piece of social science – Aitkin

Don Aitkin just weighted in on the Lewandowsky affair as Queensland University's John Cook doubles down at the Conversation. about 1 hour ago Don Aitkin writer, speaker and teacher (logged in via email @grapevine.com.au) Oh dear. The Lewandowsky article is a truly appalling piece of social science. How did it ever get past ordinary peer review? It, and the one above, demonstrate the kind of problems that Jim Woodgett in Nature two days ago and John Ioannidis a few years ago have pointed Read more [...]

Carbon abatement from wind power – zero

Zip, nil, nada. That's the findings of a two-year analysis of Victoria's wind-farm developments by mechanical engineer Hamish Cumming. Despite hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayers money, from subsidies and green energy schemes driven by the renewable energy target, surprise, surprise, Victoria's wind-farm developments have saved virtually zero carbon dioxide emissions due to their intermittent, unreliable power output. Wind power advocate Dr Mark Diesendorf, Australian academic who Read more [...]

Lewandowsky — again

This guy, a UWA employee, was shown by a Arlene Composta to be the most naive of leftists. He now says that climate skeptics are conspiracy theorist wackos. We have responded to this guy before: He thinks the cognitive processes of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) sceptics is deficient and on the same level as “truthers” and other “conspiracy theorists”. This is serious, for merely questioning the ‘science’ of AGW one now faces the opprobrium of having one’s mental ability Read more [...]

Not cointegrated, so global warming is not anthropogenic – Beenstock

Cointegration has been mentioned previously and is one of the highest ranking search terms on landshape. We have also discussed the cointegration manuscript from 2009 by Beenstock and Reingewertz, and I see he has picked up another author and submitted it to an open access journal here. Here is the abstract. Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time Read more [...]

Abandon Government Sponsored Research on Forecasting Climate – Green

Kesten Green, now of U South Australia, has a manuscript up called Evidence-based Improvements to Climate Forecasting: Progress and Recommendations arguing that evidence-based research on climate forecasting finds no support for fear of dangerous man-made global warming, because simple, inexpensive, extrapolation models are more accurate than the complex and expensive “General Circulation Models” used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Their rigorous evaluations of Read more [...]
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