Bjerknes compensation assumes a constant total poleward energy transport (and an inverse relation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport fluxes (Bjerknes, 1964)). Contrary to this assumption, there is empirical evidence of a simultaneous increase in poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport during the most recent warming period since the mid-1970s (aka the Great Pacific Climate Shift). This paper argues that TSI directly modulates ocean–atmospheric meridional heat transport.
Solar Read more [...]3 com
An increase in global temperature required to match the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections is becoming increasingly unlikely. A shift to a mean projected pathway of 3 degrees increase by the end of the century would require an immediate, large, and sustained increase in temperature which seems physically impossible.
Global surface temperatures have not increased at all in the last 18 years. The trend over the last few years is even falling slightly.
Global temperatures Read more [...]6 com
"How much do I fail thee. Let me count the ways"
Ben Santer's latest model/observation comparison paper demonstrates that climate realists were right and climate models exaggerate warming:
The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes.
Where do the models fail?
1. Significantly warmer than reality (95% CI) in the lower troposphere at all latitudes, except for the arctic.
2. Significantly warmer Read more [...]one
Bob Tisdale, author of the awesome book “Who Turned on the Heat?” presented an interesting problem that turns out to be a good application of robust statistical tests called empirical fluctuation processes.
Bob notes that sea surface temperature (SST) in a large region of the globe in the Eastern Pacific does not appear to have warmed at all in the last 30 years, in contrast to model simulations (CMIP SST) for that region that show strong warming. The region in question is shown below.
The Read more [...]2 com
Ben Santer's latest model/observation comparison paper in PNAS finally admits what climate realists have been been saying for years -- climate models are exaggerating warming. From the abstract:
On average, the models analyzed ... overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear...
Their figure above shows the massive model fail. The blue and magenta lines are trend of the UAH and RSS satelite temperature observations averaged by Read more [...]13 com
The WSO Polar field strengths - early indicators of solar maximums and minimums - have dived towards zero recently, indicating that its all down from here for solar cycle 24.
Polar field reversals can occur within a year of sunspot maximum, but cycle 24 has been so insipid, it would not be surprising if the maximum sunspot number fails to reach the NOAA predicted peak of 90 spots per month, and get no higher than the current 60 spots per month.
The peak in solar intensity was predicted Read more [...]3 com
The Beenstock, Reingewertz, and Paldor paper on lack of cointegration of global temperature with CO2 has been accepted! This is a technical paper that we have been following since 2009 when an unpublished manuscript appeared, rebutting the statistical link between global temperature increase and anthropogenic factors like CO2, and so represents another nail in the coffin of CAGW. The editor praised the work as "challenging" and "needed in our field of work."
Does the increase in CO2 concentration Read more [...]7 com
Once upon a time, a weakening of the East-West Pacific overturning circulation – called the Walker circulation – was regarded in climate science as a robust response to anthropogenic global warming. This belief was based on studies in 2006 and 2007 using climate models.
Together with a number of El Nino events (that are associated with a weakening of the Walker circulation) the alarm was raised in a string of papers (3-6) that global warming was now impacting the Pacific Ocean and that the Read more [...]2 com
The recent posts at climateaudit and WUWT show that climate scientists Gergis and Karoly were willing to manipulate their study to ensure a hockeystick result in the Southern Hemisphere, and resisted advice from editors of the Journal of Climate to report alternative approaches to establish robustness of their study.
The alternative the editors suggested of detrending the data first, revealed that most of the proxies collected in the Gergis study were uncorrelated with temperature, and so would Read more [...]one
We all make mistakes. Sometime we exaggerate the risks, and sometimes we foolishly blunder into situations we regret. Climate skeptics often characterize their opponents as 'alarmist'. But is the real problem a tendency for climate scientists to be 'nervous ninnies'?
I was intrigued by the recent verdict in the case of the scientists before an Italian court in the aftermath of a fatal earthquake. Roger Pielke Jr. relates that all is not as it seems.
There is a popular misconception in circulation Read more [...]2 com
The existence of 'consensus' around core claims of global warming is often cited as some kind of warrant for action. A recent article by Roger Pielke Jr reported the IPCC response to his attempts to correct biases and errors in AR4 in his field of expertise -- extreme events losses. As noted at CA, he made four proposed error corrections to IPCC, all of which were refused.
Since sociological psychological research is now regarded worthy of a generous share of science funding, a scholarly mind Read more [...]2 com
Apropos the New Zealand AGW case, comments below by Goon and Ross:
# Goon (8) Says:
September 8th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Justifying the unjustifiable. Don’t believe me…. then here is where the raw data lives.
Register and have a look for yourself. Nothing even remotely approaching a 1 degree/century trend in the raw data from longer term climate sites. The only way NIWA can come up with this is by applying an extremely dodgy ‘adjustment’ to make all pre-1950′s Read more [...]6 com
Don Aitkin just weighted in on the Lewandowsky affair as Queensland University's John Cook doubles down at the Conversation.
about 1 hour ago
Don Aitkin writer, speaker and teacher (logged in via email @grapevine.com.au)
Oh dear. The Lewandowsky article is a truly appalling piece of social science. How did it ever get past ordinary peer review? It, and the one above, demonstrate the kind of problems that Jim Woodgett in Nature two days ago and John Ioannidis a few years ago have pointed Read more [...]none
Zip, nil, nada. That's the findings of a two-year analysis of Victoria's wind-farm developments by mechanical engineer Hamish Cumming.
Despite hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayers money, from subsidies and green energy schemes driven by the renewable energy target, surprise, surprise, Victoria's wind-farm developments have saved virtually zero carbon dioxide emissions due to their intermittent, unreliable power output.
Wind power advocate Dr Mark Diesendorf, Australian academic who Read more [...]none
This guy, a UWA employee, was shown by a Arlene Composta to be the most naive of leftists.
He now says that climate skeptics are conspiracy theorist wackos.
We have responded to this guy before:
He thinks the cognitive processes of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) sceptics is deficient and on the same level as “truthers” and other “conspiracy theorists”. This is serious, for merely questioning the ‘science’ of AGW one now faces the opprobrium of having one’s mental ability Read more [...]one
Cointegration has been mentioned previously and is one of the highest ranking search terms on landshape.
We have also discussed the cointegration manuscript from 2009 by Beenstock and Reingewertz, and I see he has picked up another author and submitted it to an open access journal here.
Here is the abstract.
Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor
Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time Read more [...]one
Kesten Green, now of U South Australia, has a manuscript up called Evidence-based Improvements to Climate Forecasting: Progress and Recommendations arguing that evidence-based research on climate forecasting finds no support for fear of dangerous man-made global warming, because simple, inexpensive, extrapolation models are more accurate than the complex and expensive “General Circulation Models” used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Their rigorous evaluations of Read more [...]22 com
Renewables, man, get something for nothing. Harness the infinite power of wind, water, wave and tide. Why hasn't it been done before? But of course it has - two thousand years ago - and has yet to overcome three basic and insurmountable problems": intermittent, depends on locally weak, dispersed sources of energy, and no viable technology to store significant amounts of power. Bummer....
But Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, or LENR, are showing much more promise as an alternative energy source Read more [...]none
More thought-provoking thoughts from Richard on the duties and responsibilities of statutory bodies like NIWA. (NIWA is actually an incorporated body that is owned by the Crown, where-ever that plays into things.)
Anyway, everyone seems to agree that their handling of the temperature records in New Zealand is biased and deficient. The issue is, does scientific incompetence violate their charter?
With all this evidence, the Coalition case is looking very good on the plain facts. The threat Read more [...]4 com
Quote from the defense:
He must have been responding to our charge that NIWA did not perform its statutory duty. He said: “They’re not duties, they’re not called duties, they’re called operating principles.” This seemed to come from the current legislation, or recent decisions.
Where in the operating principles is the principle that government climate scientists be "in bed" with green groups like the WWF putting pressure on government to enact green policies.
The disclosures reveal Read more [...]none
Quote of the day from New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research:
The matters [at issue] arise between the plaintiff’s (the Coalition’s) Statement of Claim (SOC) and the Defendant’s (NIWA’s) Statement of Defence (SOD). NIWA counter-claimed they had no obligation to pursue excellence or to use best-quality scientific practices and also that the national temperature record was not only not official, but they themselves had no obligation to produce or maintain it.
Read more [...]2 com
A new WSJ article signed by 16 scientists:
A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls. This would be especially beneficial to the less-developed parts of the world that would like to share some of the same advantages of material well-being, health and life expectancy that the fully developed parts Read more [...]none
Its reported that a new record has been set by a Japanese anesthesiologist for most retractions by a single author.
An investigation of 212 of Yoshitaka Fujii’s 249 published papers found that he had invented patients, forged evidence that medication was administered, and signed on as co-authors other scientists who had no idea they were affiliated with his research.
There are a couple of simple solutions to this. First, archive all the data and code and expect reviewers to go through it. Read more [...]none
Previous posts have introduced the work that Chris Gillham is doing in spot auditing the accuracy of the Bureau of Meteorology's temperature records. He has now re-recorded the daily max and min temperatures from one Australian weather station for one year, Perth 9034 in 1940, using original sources in The West Australian newspaper.
Below is an initial look at the historic data (in red) compared to the BoM's "unadjusted" or "raw" records (grey) for the station.
Its fairly clear that Read more [...]none
Chris Gillham has completed re-digitizing one years worth of the daily temperature records for Perth in 1940 (perth-1940-actual-raw). These are digitised for all of 1940 at Perth Regional Office 9034 from temperatures published in The West Australian newspaper.
While the majority of the temperatures agree with contemporary BoM data, up to a third of the temperatures in some months disagreed, sometimes by over 1C! This is a very strange pattern of errors, and difficult to explain.
I will Read more [...]none
Record temperature always make the news, with climate alarmists trumpeting any record hot day. But what if the historic record temperatures recorded by BoM were adjusted down, and recent records were not records at all? More detective work using old newspapers by Chis Gillham in Adelaide this time.
The BoM claims the hottest ever Feb max at West Terrace was 43.4C on 1 February 1912. They got the date sort of right except the Adelaide Advertiser below shows Feb 1 at 112.5F (44.7C) and Feb 2 Read more [...]none
Continuing the comparison of historic sources of temperature and contemporary records, Chris Gillham has compiled a list of maximum and minimum daily temperatures for Perth for the months of January, February and March 1940 and uncovered some strange discrepancies (highlighted - all months at perth-newspapers-mar-qtr-1940).
Chris notes that while BoM's contemporary temperatures largely agree with temperatures reported in newspapers of the day, a couple of temperatures in each month disagree Read more [...]one
Siliggy has pulled a simple list of maximum temperatures for Adelaide from old newspapers early last century then compared to the BOM records for that time. In most cases the BoM records are 1.5C cooler that the current record. What a clear demonstration of how much they have been adjusted down -- equal to the putative warming trend!
JoNova posts on ACORN. Read more [...]none