Niche Modeling

Latest results from RSS for global temperature in the lower atmosphere show a decline in December 2008 to 0.174 from 0.216 in the previous month. Two early leaders in the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition have emerged: CoRev and Jan Pompe. Below are the questions so-far, and all the punters with at least one correct prediction of the direction of monthly global temperature.

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Jennifer Marohasy concurs that the AIMS GBR study presents level 5 evidence (merely expert opinion) that measured decline in coral growth is due to anthropogenic global warming.

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This newly released study from the Australian Institute of Marine Science in Townsville is getting a lot of press. An interview with the author Glen De’ath by the ABC claims a tipping point for coral growth has already been reached in 1990. Mongabay.com claims the growth of coral in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has slowed its lowest rate in at least 400 years as a result of warming waters and ocean acidification.

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New Year is the time to re-evaluate, and model predictions are no exception. Andrew Bolt has a list of how 10 climate predictions fared in 2008. Too triumphal for my taste, but worth a read, even if for the last line.

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A grader rolled over on to its side on an embankment after the right side ram of the grader was activated by the laser guided blade control system.

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Starting this post is a poll of readers view’s on a CO2 emissions target for Australia, announced recently by the Prime Minister. Please take a moment to respond, before moving on to the rest of the post.

Is a 5pc reduction in CO2 emissions too low or too high a target?

More information

	Too low		6.1%	4
	Too high		93.9%	62

Total: 66

PollNet | Create a Poll | User Forum | 18.35 msec.Results

A forum has been added using the software phpBB (link on menu bar above). This is a message board/community forum for landshape related issues.

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Yesterday, the UN suspended a firm responsible for 50% of carbon-offset certifications, after a spot check carried out in early November at the firm’s headquarters revealed serious flaws in project management.

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What affects global warming? We have been developing experiments to examine what affects greenhouse warming. To counter intuitive certitude, I have asked people to guess the results of simple experiments before they are done. Finally, we’ll evaluate the relevance to stratospheric and tropospheric forcing if at all.

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Last months RSS global temperature data results are in. Lucia is first off the block. Contrary the majority of expectations, the temperature of the lower troposphere increased. Isn’t truly independent prediction frustrating? Glad we aren’t stock-picking.

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One of the main assumptions of linear regression is, ahem, linearity. Here is an example drawn from dendroclimatology, the reconstruction of past climates using tree rings, of the trouble one can get into by blindly assuming linearity. This subject was dealt with some time ago at ClimateAudit Upside-Down Quadratic Proxy Response.

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Allow homeowners to convert the value of their mortgages and repayments to mark-to-market accounting. Mark-to-market is an accounting methodology assigning a value to a position held in a financial instrument based on the current market price for the instrument or similar instruments. Marking-to-market would sync the mortgage with the underlying security, the house. The loan is no longer toxic as it is no longer underwater. The homeowner gets a break, paying less interest and in many cases would keep the home from going into foreclosure.

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The goal of the experiment was to determine the maximum operating conditions of a simple greenhouse. The purpose was to understand general principle of the greenhouse effect, popularly identified with the increase in temperature over the ambient temperature resulting from particular configurations of sunlight absorbing bodies, glass enclosures, atmospheres etc.

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As reported by Luboš Motl, former Astronaut and US Senator Jack Schmitt has resigned from the Planetary Society over policies including global warming. [Read more →]

A number of readers have expressed some knowledge of the greenhouse effect and how it works. Here is a quiz to give the punters an opportunity to show they know what they are talking about.

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I am starting to read a few posts on bulletin boards about this experiment, and some points need to be made clearly.

1. The main purpose of the experiment is to verify that maximum G=1.5, the greenhouse factor, not to replicate the conditions in the real atmosphere. That is, it is to test the Su=3OLR/2 constraint, not the B=H(1+τ)/2 lapse rate constraint.

2. I am amazed that no-one has done this. Reading around the web, experiments show profound ignorance of the greenhouse effect, replicating only the spectroscopic absorption by increased CO2. That is they deal in the effect of increased optical depth τ and hence the relationship described by B=H(1+τ)/2 — not the real greenhouse effect constraint. Because CO2 absorbs more IR, they mistakenly assume that shows earth’s temperatures will increase.

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Continued from Greenhouse Heat Engine #2.

Today I repeated the greenhouse experiment reported yesterday. The weather conditions were more favorable, being still and sunny in the initial period, but became more thermally towards the end. I also replaced the plastic flour container with a solid glass jar. Whereas yesterday the temperatures inside the sealed jar only reached 66% of the predicted theoretical maximum, today they got to 60C (red line), within 82% of the theoretical maximum (black dashed line). The theoretical maximum is the ratio of 1.107 times the outside temperature (blue line), which raised to the fourth power gives a ratio of 1.5 radiant heat, inside vs outside.

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Here is a simple science experiment you can try at home to disprove one of the main aspects of global warming. One of the main assumptions of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is that the temperature will continue to increase as the opacity of the atmosphere increases due to carbon dioxide gas (CO2). We can test the theory that increasing opacity increases temperature very easily.

For this experiment, you will need a combined temperature and humidity weather station with a remote temperature transmitter (like the Atech from Dick Smith, pictured, $59) and a large clear container, large enough to contain the weather station. I used an old flour container.

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What is the major effect of anthropogenic global warming (AGW)? Below are some articles to give you a hint.

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A number of readers have expressed some confidence in their ability to predict the monthly temperature figures before they come out. I thought it would be fun to have a competition of skill at predicting global temperatures.

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Up or down? UAH (University of Alabama Huntsville) usually comes out around this time of the month on the first entry of the last line of this file.

UAH Global Temperature Anomaly jumped up in September 2008 (from Anthony Watts). The results for October 2008 are below — largely unchanged.

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A new plugin for writing equations in latex is now available. Just put two dollars before and after the latex code.

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Continued from Greenhouse Heat Engine:

A couple of days ago, Luke, a frequent commenter, sent in a number of links to a new Australian Government drought initiative. The Minister Tony Burke has appointed an Expert Panel to examine the social impacts of drought as part of its national review of exceptional circumstances (EC) funding, which argues for a major change, based on incentives rather than emergency aid. In a recent speech, Peter Kenny, chair of an expert panel looking at the social impact of drought said of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR):

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I have converted the draft of the introductory document The new climate theory of Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi by Dr. Noor van Andel into a Wiki. The permissions are set for registered users of the Wiki to freely edit it. There are a great deal of areas where it could be improved and added too, and an opportunity to learn more about Wikis.

Register here to edit.

Wiki Syntax is here.

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Comment by Ken Gregory moved from Greenhouse Heat Engine.

Last month I asked Ferenc Miskolczi to calculate a 60 year trend of optical depths using radiosonde data I compiled from the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory to confirm his prediction of constant optical depth. We finally got the results:
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Thread for “Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere”, by B.D. Santer et al.

One of the tests of climate models predicting drought in my review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report was the correlation of predicted area under drought with actual observed area under drought. Lazar criticized my inclusion of the R-Squared (r2) coefficient, and issue I didn’t follow up at the time. [Read more →]

Geoff Sherrington has been drawing attention to some changes in the legal language attached to various emails and reports associated with the CSIRO and the Climate Adaptation Flagship (CAF). Since I have been posting up emails in an attempt to hold people accountable, I have been looking into the legality. In the case of reports, to what degree are the authors accountable for the accuracy of the contents? (Disclaimer: This post makes no representations or warranties regarding merchantability, fitness for purpose or otherwise with respect to the following assessment.)

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