Book: Niche Modeling

Using theory, applications, and examples of inferences, Niche Modeling: Predictions from Statistical Distributions demonstrates how to conduct and evaluate niche modeling projects in any area of application. It features a series of theoretical and practical exercises for developing and evaluating niche models.


Deniliquin

BoM copies me, inadequately

Yesterday’s post noted the appearance of station summaries at the BoM adjustment page attempting to defend their adjustments to the temperature record at several stations. Some I have also examined. Today’s post compares and contrasts their approach with mine. Deniliquin The figures below compare the minimum temperatures at Deniliquin with neighbouring stations. On the left, […]


BoM publishing station summaries justifying adjustments

Last night George Christensen MP gave a speech accusing the Bureau of Meteorology of “fudging figures”. He waved a 28 page of adjustments around, and called for a review. These adjustments can be found here. While I dont agree that adjusting to account for station moves can necessarily be regarded as fudging figures, I am […]


Kerang: Where is the daily data?

Been looking forward to doing Kerang as I knew it was another dud series from ACORN-SAT. The report is here: Kerang The first thing to notice in plotting up the time series data for the raw CDO and ACORN-SAT is that while the ACORN-SAT data goes back to 1910 the CDO data is truncated at […]


Scorecard for ACORN-SAT Quality Assurance – the score so far.

Three more quality tests of stations in the ACORN-SAT series have been completed: Wilcannia Cape Otway Lighthouse Amberley The test measures the deviation of the trend of the series from its neighbours since 1913 (or residual trend). A deviation of plus or minus 0.05 degrees per decade is within tolerance (green), 0.05 to 0.1 is […]


Williamtown RAAF – an interesting case

Williamtown RAAF is one case where the quality control test indicates that the adjustments were justified, even though the homogenization in ACORN-SAT produced a strong change in trend. My report is here and Ken has posted graphs for Williamtown, along with a number of sites with large changes in trend by ACORN-SAT. . This illustrates […]


Panel tests of the ACORN-SAT temperature network – first results

You may have read Ken Stewart’s excellent blog on the official Australian temperature record. With the publication of the “adjustments.xls” file of the offical adjustments to the raw data in the ACORN-SAT dataset, as reported on JoNova’s blog, there has been a flurry of work behind the scenes, so to speak. Jennifer Marohasy has been […]


New energy source confirmed in third party test

As previously covered here, Andre Rossi appears to have delivered the goods… Cold fusion reactor verified by third-party researchers, seems to have 1 million times the energy density of gasoline Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat — the device that purports to use cold fusion to generate massive amounts of cheap, green energy – has been verified by […]


Fact Checking the Climate Council 7

The Climate Council mini-statement called Bushfires and Climate Change in Australia – The Facts states in support of their view that “1. In Australia, climate change is influencing both the frequency and intensity of extreme hot days, as well as prolonged periods of low rainfall. This increases the risk of bushfires.” Southeast Australia is experiencing […]


A Practical Project for the Hyperloop 11

When the storied Tesla Motors CEO promoted the Hyperloop, a proposed California high speed rail project between San Francisco and Los Angeles in 30 minutes, instead of the 2 hours and 40 minutes on the VFT, people naturally got excited. But there are three questions. Will the ticket price be compeditive with existing air travel? […]


Error in calculating Hyperloop ticket price 10

The semi-technical document on the Hyperloop mass transport system, recently produced by Elon Musk, estimated the price of a one-way ticket as $20. Transporting 7.4 million people each way and amortizing the cost of $6 billion over 20 years gives a ticket price of $20 for a one-way trip for the passenger version of Hyperloop. […]


Hyperloop for Sydney – Melbourne – Brisbane link? 15

Elon Musk unveiled his concept for a new mass transport system consisting of capsules shot along a partially evacuated pipe at very high speed. The details contain estimates of a capital cost of less than $10 billion and the cost of a one-way ticket of $20 — not bad. Compare that to the estimated capital […]


Cold Fusion a Victory for the Free Market 14

Free marketers and global warming alarmists alike should be heartened by the handful of companies that claim a zero carbon emissions commercial energy plant based on a safe cold fusion (CF) reaction. An Italian company demonstrated a product called E-Cat in 2011, and a Greek company named Defkalion also provided a profession demonstration of their […]


Examples of Scientific Method 6

Note to global warming alarmists: “Science is our way of describing — as best we can — how the world works. The world works perfectly well without us. Our thinking about it makes no important difference. When our minds make a guess about what’s happening out there, if we put our guess to the test […]


Scientific Method Meets Global Warming 6

In general, there are only two way to prove something in science. 1. Prove a singular (fact) with an observation such as “black swans exist”. 2. Disprove a universal (theory) with a singular fact such as “all swans are white”. The inability to disprove a singular, or to prove a universal, is due to our […]


Nanoplasmonics – a field is born 13

Axil Axil suggested in the Vortex discussion list – about the only list I read these days – the name nanoplasmonics for developments in cold fusion (while referencing a very funny mockery of how academics will revise the history of cold fusion in 2015 – “History is written by the losers”). The field is so […]


How did climate skeptics know the scare was not real? 23

The climate scare is collapsing, it seems, as climate scientists everywhere are renouncing their previous certainty. Skeptics OTOH have been consistent. This blog in particular has been challenging since 2005 the establishment global warming views on such predictions as mass extinctions, significance of warming, decreasing rainfall and droughts. It is instructive to look into ourselves […]


How does cold fusion work? 16

A scientific paper by Defkalion Energy sets our their theory behind the desk-top reactor. 1. Powdered nickel is loaded with hydrogen and heated its Debye temperature – which is the temperature which maximizes the vibration of the individual molecules in the nickel lattice. 2. The hydrogen molecules (H2) are dissociated into a plasma by a […]


Defkalion Demo Packing Heat 2

Todays demonstration by Defkalion Energy of their Hyperion Nickel/Hydrogen reactor showed their technology is ready for industrialization. This technology promises to lower fuel costs by 1000 times. Energy will soon be abundant and safe and burning carbon unnecessary. Coal and renewables are dead men walking. See the series of articles on LENR since 2010.


UQ Fellow Spews Fear 7

John Cook, Climate Communication Fellow from the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland is on the record saying: Climate change like atom bomb and “animal species are responding to global warming by mating earlier in the year. This isn’t because animals are getting randier, it’s because the seasons themselves are shifting” IMHO science […]


More Evidence of a Sun-Climate Connection 5

Bjerknes compensation assumes a constant total poleward energy transport (and an inverse relation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport fluxes (Bjerknes, 1964)). Contrary to this assumption, there is empirical evidence of a simultaneous increase in poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport during the most recent warming period since the mid-1970s (aka the Great Pacific Climate […]


The Widening Gap Between Present Global Temperature and IPCC Model Projections 12

An increase in global temperature required to match the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections is becoming increasingly unlikely. A shift to a mean projected pathway of 3 degrees increase by the end of the century would require an immediate, large, and sustained increase in temperature which seems physically impossible. Global surface temperatures have […]


Q: Where Do Climate Models Fail? A: Almost Everywhere 4

“How much do I fail thee. Let me count the ways” Ben Santer’s latest model/observation comparison paper demonstrates that climate realists were right and climate models exaggerate warming: The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes. Where do the models fail? 1. Significantly warmer than […]


EPacVsCIMP

East Pacific Region Temperatures: Climate Models Fail Again 3

Bob Tisdale, author of the awesome book “Who Turned on the Heat?” presented an interesting problem that turns out to be a good application of robust statistical tests called empirical fluctuation processes. Bob notes that sea surface temperature (SST) in a large region of the globe in the Eastern Pacific does not appear to have […]


Santer: Climate Models are Exaggerating Warming – We Don’t Know Why 22

Ben Santer’s latest model/observation comparison paper in PNAS finally admits what climate realists have been been saying for years — climate models are exaggerating warming. From the abstract: On average, the models analyzed … overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear… Their figure above shows the massive […]

SanterPNAS

Solar Cycle 24 peaked? The experimentum crucis begins. 13

The WSO Polar field strengths – early indicators of solar maximums and minimums – have dived towards zero recently, indicating that its all down from here for solar cycle 24. Polar field reversals can occur within a year of sunspot maximum, but cycle 24 has been so insipid, it would not be surprising if the […]


AGW Doesn’t Cointegrate: Beenstock’s Challenging Analysis Published 14

The Beenstock, Reingewertz, and Paldor paper on lack of cointegration of global temperature with CO2 has been accepted! This is a technical paper that we have been following since 2009 when an unpublished manuscript appeared, rebutting the statistical link between global temperature increase and anthropogenic factors like CO2, and so represents another nail in the […]


Still no weakening of the Walker Circulation 11

Once upon a time, a weakening of the East-West Pacific overturning circulation – called the Walker circulation – was regarded in climate science as a robust response to anthropogenic global warming. This belief was based on studies in 2006 and 2007 using climate models. Together with a number of El Nino events (that are associated […]


Circularity and the Hockeystick: coming around again 4

The recent posts at climateaudit and WUWT show that climate scientists Gergis and Karoly were willing to manipulate their study to ensure a hockeystick result in the Southern Hemisphere, and resisted advice from editors of the Journal of Climate to report alternative approaches to establish robustness of their study. The alternative the editors suggested of […]


Is the problem alarmism, or prestige-seeking? 5

We all make mistakes. Sometime we exaggerate the risks, and sometimes we foolishly blunder into situations we regret. Climate skeptics often characterize their opponents as ‘alarmist’. But is the real problem a tendency for climate scientists to be ‘nervous ninnies’? I was intrigued by the recent verdict in the case of the scientists before an […]