A very interesting theory of global warming proposed by the Hungarian mathematician

Ferenc Miskolczi contains a simple proof that the greenhouse effect

is bound to a fixed value and cannot ‘runaway’, or even increase. In order to understand, or audit, parts of the theory I step through a simplified version of the derivation of his result below.

The first step in modeling a system’s dynamics is representing the main

constant relationships, usually based on conservation of energy.

The ‘big picture’ view of the flow of atmospheric energy consists of three

linked components: the Sun’s energy in, flux circulation within the atmosphere/surface system, and radiant heat out.

This view of the system as a linear converter of shortwave (SW) into longwave (LW) radiation is shown in diagram with the relevant symbols. Energy comes in

as SW energy (Fo), is circulated and transformed by surface (S) and atmospheric (E) fluxes, and goes out as LW energy (OLR).

Fo -> S,E -> OLR (1)

For these components to be in balance, the energy passing through each of the three components must be equal. We ignore geothermal energy at this stage (Po).

The internal energy of the surface/atmosphere system is also composed of a number of fluxes. Miskolczi represents the energy of the system by two main net fluxes. The first net flux is the difference between the surface up flux (Su) and the radiant energy down flux Fo. This net flux (Su-Fo) warms the atmosphere. If the atmosphere was non-absorbing then these would be equal and the net term zero.

The other internal energy term is the net flux down from

the warmed atmosphere. This is composed of up and down atmospheric components, Eu and Ed. The net flux (Ed-Eu) produces the increase in land surface temperature known as the greenhouse effect. If this net flux was zero, the land surface would be much colder than it is.

For conservation of energy, total energy input Fo, the total energy of the surface/atmosphere system, and also the total energy output OLR must all be balanced (illustrated in the Figure 1):

Su-Fo + Ed – Eu = Fo = OLR (2)

This is the Miskolczi energy conservation equation 7.

Here it is assumed that the atmosphere is able to use all of the absorbed solar

flux density (Fo=OLR) to warm the system.

The factor missing is the transmittance (T) directly from the surface

to space without absorbance in the atmosphere. This is through

frequencies called the atmospheric window, and is why the

Miskolczi atmosphere theory is “semi-transparent” and not “infinitely thick”.

I will deal with transmittance in a later post, however for now we assume the

system is able to utilize St (surface radiation that would be transmitted

in a clear sky) and return it to the surface from the cloud bottom.

(2) is a unique equation for cloudy atmosphere. In the Earth you always have some transmitted flux density, meaning that OLR>Eu.

The expression (2) can be simplified using the Kirchoff law equilibrium

relationship: the energy balance at the ground Ed=Su and

the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere Eu=Fo=OLR. Miskolczi

explains that thermal equilibrium between the surface and the atmosphere is not self-evident, and in fact is one of the major innovations of his approach.

But I will return to his discussion of that issue in a later post.

Substitution of these into (2) gives SU-OLR+SU-OLR = OLR or

Su=3OLR/2 (3).

Miskolczi offers the following simple linear regression model as evidence of the

postulated relationship between Su and OLR based on actual radiosonde measurements (Figure 2 below).

The relevant information on the figure is the a global average OLR at 61km of 250W/m^{2} and Su of 375 W/m^{2}, confirming the 2/3 relationship. The spread of results about these values are due to latitudinal variation I presume (figure supplied by Ferenc). The comparable IPCC AR4 estimates (see FAQ and chapter 1) based on Kiehl and Trenberth are 235W/m^{2} and 390W/m^{2}.

An easy way to get the greenhouse effect in terms of temperature is take the fourth root of the ratio of W/m^{2} (square root twice). This gives 1.106682 for the ratio of the increase in temperature due to the greenhouse effect. If the Earth’s temperature would be 257.7K without the greenhouse effect, with gives an expected increase of temperature of 27.5K due to greenhouse effect, which is comparable to estimates (see wikipedia).

So it seems that Miskolczi derives upper limits to the greenhouse effect in

a fairly straightforward way from the conservation of energy. Based on the rough calculations above the effect is also at a maximum, leaving no possibility of increases in temperature due to ‘enhanced greenhouse effect’ without violation of principles of conservation of energy.

## Implications of Increasing CO2

The 2/3 value is the amplification of IR at the surface causing Su to be greater than OLR. This is related to the greenhouse effect caused by the absorption or optical depth of the atmosphere, called f. Greenhouse gases that increase the optical depth of the

atmosphere would change f, expressed as a positive derivative df/f.

The results of most general circulation models (GCMs) indicate such an increase df/f>0, would increase the temperature of the atmosphere

and hence the atmospheric flux down Ed, warming the surface. This is shown in the elevated curve in the

figure from Douglass et al. 2007 marked with a red arrow.

To examine changes in the system, Miskolczi takes a derivative form of (3) where f is the coefficient for 2/3:

df/f = dOLR/OLR – dSu/Su (4)

If df/f were positive, due to a sudden increase in a GHG say, then the dOLR/OLR must be

greater than dSu/Su. That is, (4) indicates that atmospheric temperatures

would increase faster than surface temperatrues, as shown in the

experimental results from GCMs reported in Douglas et al 2007

and reviewed here.

However, (3) shows that the value of Su is locked to OLR which in turn is

locked to incoming radiation Fo. So such increases would be

temporary and the equilibrium would be reestablished with

f going back to its original value. This necessitates a fall in other

greenhouse elements, such as a decrease in water vapor in

the air, restoring the original optical depth.

The energy of

the surface/atmosphere system cannot continue increasing

as energy inputs and outputs must remain the same

to keep the energy of the system in balance. So the

temperature of the atmosphere must remain fairly constant.

This model provides an explanation for lack of troposphere warming despite increasing CO2.

as shown in the observed trends for the troposphere shown on the Douglass figure above (blue lines).

## Next

Some outstanding issues need to be addressed, particularly the cloudy sky and Kirchoff equilibrium assumptions. In future posts, I want to get to claims such as the following:

The observed 5 % increase in CO2 can be compensated with ~0.005 prcm decrease in the global H2O content. This amount is so

small it cannot be measured or monitored.

This means that in the long run the Earth has a saturated greenhouse

effect with fixed optical depth, with profound consequences

for global warming. As long as we have an atmosphere with a virtually infinite

water reservoir, neither nature nor humans can influence the

greenhouse effect.

The only levers to play with that can alter surface temperatures

are the solar inputs Fo, geothermal

energy Po, and the distribution of heat within the system such as changes in albedo or

emissivity.

Next: The Virial Theorem in Miskolczi’s Atmosphere Theory

Pingback: Niche Modeling » The Virial Theorem (Miskolczi Part 2)

Pingback: Niche Modeling » Kirchhoff Law (Miskolczi Part 3)

Pingback: Niche Modeling »

Pingback: Niche Modeling » Radiative Equilibrium (Miskolczi Part 4)

Pingback: page

Pingback: http://isdsi.org/

Pingback: sara's homestay

Pingback: Find more

Pingback: site web

Pingback: primary 4 english

Pingback: sam waltonman

Pingback: why not find out more

Pingback: Android apps development

Pingback: mollen verjagen

Pingback: locksmith channelview Texas

Pingback: iherb discount code

Pingback: somanabolic muscle maximizer review

Pingback: water lipo chicago

Pingback: bollywoodsnews wallpapers

Pingback: for more information see about certificate errors in internet explorer help

Pingback: charlotte nc

Pingback: video camera

Pingback: best friv games

Pingback: Blog

Pingback: buy cialis

Pingback: Medical University in Almaty

Pingback: Seo

Pingback: premature ejaculation lloyds pharmacy

Pingback: Empowering

Pingback: Van hall tapes the original phone humor

Pingback: Technology

Pingback: Marketing Automation Tools

Pingback: gopro hero3 black edition

Pingback: Marketing

Pingback: Tech

Pingback: our site

Pingback: erotische massage in

Pingback: Start

Pingback: Advogado familia

Pingback: Health

Pingback: Finance

Pingback: clean

Pingback: Liberty

Pingback: capture his heart claire casey

Pingback: builder leeds

Pingback: Helderzienden online: Live helderziende - Heldervoelende helderziende

Pingback: mark cobb

Pingback: alkaline ionized water

Pingback: iherb coupons

Pingback: US gold

Pingback: iherb coupon

Pingback: Business

Pingback: sc downloader

Pingback: Camp

Pingback: odziez dziecieca

Pingback: new books on lung cancer

Pingback: nice 06

Pingback: Opzioni Binarie

Pingback: activation key free

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: Miami bankruptcy lawyer

Pingback: Tech

Pingback: Home

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: Primerica scam

Pingback: Diindolylmethane

Pingback: Clothing

Pingback: We Buy Houses in Woodbury, CT

Pingback: clash of clans cheats

Pingback: online jobs

Pingback: Video SEO San Diego CA

Pingback: pressure cooker

Pingback: more info

Pingback: interior home design ideas

Pingback: Gold Buyers

Pingback: pet sitter naples fl

Pingback: kangen water machine

Pingback: kratom bestellen

Pingback: plano roofing repair

Pingback: Financial

Pingback: method

Pingback: LACAN

Pingback: cheap car insurance comparison

Pingback: air traffic controller

Pingback: Learn More

Pingback: purses

Pingback: Core Products

Pingback: cheap insurance life

Pingback: the best installment loans for bad credit

Pingback: Wheaton IL Homes For Sale

Pingback: fast fat loss plan

Pingback: water damage restoration houston

Pingback: garcinia cambogia hca extract

Pingback: budaors ingatlan elado

Pingback: grimms fairy tales the willful child

Pingback: Les débats des assemblées

Pingback: secret money system review

Pingback: que es el metodo del ritmo

Pingback: blackhat

Pingback: People Development Africa

Pingback: laser lipo

Pingback: seo companies las vegas

Pingback: gooseneck trailers

Pingback: M88

Pingback: Sofia

Pingback: clash of clans hack

Pingback: State farm auto insurance quote

Pingback: ??????????? ?Θ???

Pingback: cleaners

Pingback: ebay japan

Pingback: massage ceu

Pingback: foods that burn fat fast

Pingback: umowa zlecenie

Pingback: ukladanie kostki brukowej niepolomice

Pingback: Drukarnia Madimo

Pingback: instalacje podlogowe

Pingback: Rowery elektryczne

Pingback: trening bez sprzetu

Pingback: infant swimming instructor locations

Pingback: napedy do bram przemyslowych

Pingback: paleo recipe book review

Pingback: Wp Weekend Phoenix

Pingback: how do i get free coins for slotomania

Pingback: hefalimp cardijon

Pingback: this site has good information

Pingback: click on this website

Pingback: Top Website Hosting Reviews

Pingback: ice age 2 ds

Pingback: London

Pingback: Manifestation Miracle Review

Pingback: fajsdgjfashdjfaksjdhkfa

Pingback: NCWISE Login

Pingback: nexus-gaming

Pingback: dentists in austin tx

Pingback: Altieri Gilmore LLP Attorneys

Pingback: Bitcoin VPS

Pingback: rozwój krakowa

Pingback: drzwi przeciwpozarowe

Pingback: skup sprzetu komputerowego Wroclaw

Pingback: win prizes like Wii and ipod, it's fast, easy and fun. join us

Pingback: 3D Printer Models

Pingback: wyniki lotto

Pingback: bizuteria sztuczna

Pingback: credit score gov

Pingback: watch dogs trainer

Pingback: ultimate demon review

Pingback: Bariatric Surgery

Pingback: poems and greetings

Pingback: Going Here

Pingback: DUI Lawyers Denver

Pingback: read this post here

Pingback: la verdad del sureste

Pingback: remxgxncbxvemdfchnf

Pingback: Learn More Here

Pingback: download gta 5

Pingback: mfc token generator

Pingback: online slots

Pingback: noticias

Pingback: download expendables 3 myegy

Pingback: adsense site

Pingback: Inspiration

Pingback: download The Expendables 3 free without membership

Pingback: visit the site,

Pingback: Go Here

Pingback: look these up

Pingback: download old The Expendables 3

Pingback: literie Treca

Pingback: download i The Expendables 3

Pingback: masters and johnson premature ejaculation

Pingback: blog url,

Pingback: go to my blog

Pingback: free downloads The Expendables 3

Pingback: napoleon hill prayer of gratitude

Pingback: download free The Expendables 3

Pingback: Political blog

Pingback: download full The Expendables 3

Pingback: szkolenie bhp kraków

Pingback: stomatolog gdansk

Pingback: jaffe porter crossick

Pingback: additional reading

Pingback: online macarons bestellen

Pingback: here are the findings

Pingback: alkaline water

Pingback: hindi download The Expendables 3

Pingback: download films for free

Pingback: Metal Detector Reviews Worldwide

Pingback: how to stay longer during intercourse

Pingback: think and grow rich poem

Pingback: antique amber amber beads

Pingback: meditation institute

Pingback: billig sexleksak

Pingback: Football quotes

Pingback: FREE LIFETIME SUPPORT

Pingback: kargo

Pingback: rent warehouse miami

Pingback: click here

Pingback: professional hair remover

Pingback: phone repair

Pingback: PEORIA ELECTRICIAN

Pingback: MMA Training Camp

Pingback: extra resources

Pingback: paddle hair brush

Pingback: seo meth

Pingback: Press Release Distribution

Pingback: goat sex

Pingback: cheap buiness health & saftey insurance

Pingback: pod zastaw

Pingback: sweatshirt

Pingback: divorced

Pingback: jewelry gift items

Pingback: Miami Commercial Real Estate Companies

Pingback: www.mykneescooter.com

Pingback: geile afspraak in

Pingback: Solar PV

Pingback: kaffeevollautomat impressa c60

Pingback: lovelady center website

Pingback: lovelady center donations

Pingback: cheap pinterest likes

Pingback: luxury pet products

Pingback: wildlife

Pingback: tube viperx

Pingback: internet radio

Pingback: criminal lawyer

Pingback: save money make money

Pingback: ms88cn

Pingback: jobs

Pingback: $1000 Profit in 30 Minute Proven Binary Trading Strategy

Pingback: lawyer directory

Pingback: sex

Pingback: más información

Pingback: ZVOX 580

Pingback: sniper

Pingback: san antonio lawyer alexander begum

Pingback: Companies In The United States

Pingback: Discounts

Pingback: home computer repair

Pingback: fat camp

Pingback: read more

Pingback: pipeline inspection services

Pingback: hair regrowth hair club for men indianapolis

Pingback: It Support Durham

Pingback: Troca

Pingback: buy cigars

Pingback: vegas robaina cigars

Pingback: cigars online

Pingback: cuban cigars

Pingback: penyakit strok

Pingback: Make Big Money

Pingback: Imperial Guardian

Pingback: Finance

Pingback: Buy Hacking Software

Pingback: Wizard of Dryer Vent cleaning

Pingback: kezia pick up artist

Pingback: hair system replacement

Pingback: Home Improvement Leads

Pingback: angled kabuki foundation brush

Pingback: Fence Repair

Pingback: cozy cove

Pingback: farmers markets massa carrara

Pingback: Countertop Installation

Pingback: Toilet Repair

Pingback: Illinois Process Server

Pingback: Popcorn Ceiling Removal

Pingback: Illinois Flat Fee MLS

Pingback: meal replacement

Pingback: Illinois Flat Fee MLS

Pingback: video games

Pingback: Amazon

Pingback: Bee Wild Pest Control

Pingback: Casual games

Pingback: vorzeitiger samenerguss

Pingback: cna certification online

Pingback: oak lawn hyundai

Pingback: dealer en chicago

Pingback: Service Add Follower

Pingback: Perbanyak Follower Instagram

Pingback: hyundai chicago

Pingback: 12 questions every borrower should consider before refinancing

Pingback: Halifax Real Estate Listings

Pingback: games like minecraft

Pingback: accident injury

Pingback: scentsi

Pingback: eye doctor

Pingback: Illinois Service of Process

Pingback: dog poop bags bulk

Pingback: What's the difference between Government and Conventional Loans?

Pingback: download app

Pingback: norwegian fish oil

Pingback: For Sale By Owner Portland OR

Pingback: animals hd wallpapers

Pingback: tarot reading

Pingback: Print media

Pingback: fitness store

Pingback: vehicle

Pingback: optimizare online

Pingback: iphone6

Pingback: Earn Money

Pingback: Nike Coupon Code

Pingback: Bodyguard Service

Pingback: whatsapp hack

Pingback: bee wild pest control

Pingback: ice bucket challenge fails

Pingback: Whatsapp status sad

Pingback: visit this brand new web-page

Pingback: Hosting pack 1

Pingback: visit your url

Pingback: whatsapp hack

Pingback: Drag Chain

Pingback: juicy couture tracksuits

Pingback: Cialis

Pingback: pills to prevent premature ejaculation

Pingback: modere rewards

Pingback: buy adderall

Pingback: oxycontin online

Pingback: epic fails 2014

Pingback: emotional intelligence training

Pingback: click here

Pingback: cerdas calientes

Pingback: address books for computers

Pingback: study guide charlie and the chocolate factory

Pingback: notepad bluebox

Pingback: download whatsapp for pc

Pingback: best vision correction surgery

Pingback: nlp books

Pingback: voyage de noce bali

Pingback: cash for gold

Pingback: CPCS Answers

Pingback: wordpress perth

Pingback: perth web design

Pingback: cheap web design perth

Pingback: web developer perth

Pingback: hack

Pingback: This Kid Will Inspire You More Than Anything In The World

Pingback: Mr. Kuek

Pingback: teen chat

Pingback: how can i get my ex back

Pingback: badmintonschläger

Pingback: online cheap insurance quotes

Pingback: free online slot games for fun

Pingback: gap visa credit card

Pingback: compare auto insurance quote

Pingback: giochidicucinaa.com

Pingback: escorts in dubai

Pingback: Home insurance rates by state

Pingback: orange county bail bonds

Pingback: Seoagency.co.id Konsultan Jasa SEO

Pingback: instant auto insurance quote

Pingback: driving test success all tests 2012 edition download

Pingback: Free C#.NET Projects

Pingback: Colusa Criminal Defense Attorney

Pingback: how to cheat andorid games

Pingback: cialis

Pingback: kitchen fitters south yorkshire

Pingback: download cheat

Pingback: dishtv instant recharge

Pingback: Political Posts On Facebook

Pingback: banana blue

Pingback: Fixstone Computer Service

Pingback: screen protector for iphone 6

Pingback: police hiring

Pingback: Elephant Art

Pingback: perth digital agency

Pingback: seo agency

Pingback: Cialis

Pingback: awakening the kundalini energy

Pingback: Affiliate Marketing Programs Real Estate

Pingback: Making Money Online Has Never Been Easier

Pingback: Pianist

Pingback: Galaxy S4 Cases

Pingback: divorce lawyers in maryland

Pingback: property investments

Pingback: perth web

Pingback: chris brown X mp3

Pingback: http://www.Ath-M50.net/

Pingback: Market your app

Pingback: cook book

Pingback: Edgar

Pingback: Forex Broker

Pingback: hecigarette review

Pingback: budaorsi ingatlan studio

Pingback: increase soundcloud plays and likes

Pingback: lose weight

Pingback: Coupons For Dog Foods

Pingback: Hack Facebook Account

Pingback: descuentos peru

Pingback: quick extender

Pingback: Buy High Quality Likes

Pingback: quickextenderpro

Pingback: minecraft free

Pingback: company bonding

Pingback: konverteringsoptimering

Pingback: garage flooring fort collins

Pingback: cheap Gulf Shores condo Rentals

Pingback: best prize

Pingback: How to find a good personal injury attorney to help you with your accident or injury claim.

Pingback: live samaa news hd tv

Pingback: stopthestresstoday.com/about-me

Pingback: stopthestresstoday.com/about-me

Pingback: Sports wagering

Pingback: Livejasmin Hack iphone

Pingback: www.triplesealinsulation.com

Pingback: pitts roofing fort worth tx

Pingback: Dubia roaches for Sale

Pingback: agen tangkas online

Pingback: DAS

Pingback: Glendora Kirberger